Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 NFL playoffs on Sunday. The Bills enter the AFC Divisional Round full of confidence after winning their last six games. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are the defending Super Bowl champions and coming off an impressive 26-7 victory over the Miami Dolphins. You can watch the game on CBS and stream it live on Paramount+

Kickoff from Highmark Stadium is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 45.5. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Bills picks, you need to see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 183-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 37-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Bills vs. Chiefs and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can see the model's picks only at SportsLine. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Bills:

  • Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Buffalo -2.5
  • Bills vs. Chiefs over/under: 45.5 points
  • Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Buffalo -149, Kansas City +125
  • KC: Chiefs were 10-7 against the spread this season
  • BUF: Bills are 8-10 ATS this season
  • Bills vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine 
  • Bills vs. Chiefs live stream: Paramount+ (try free for one week)

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo features four pass catchers with 44 or more receptions, led by wide receiver Stefon Diggs. In 17 games, Diggs has 107 receptions for 1,183 yards (11.1 average) and eight scores. He also has 10 explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 55 yards. Tight end Dalton Kincaid has been a thorn for opposing defenses as well with 73 receptions for 673 yards (9.2 average) and two TDs.

Among Buffalo's top defenders is veteran safety Jordan Poyer. The 11-year veteran played in 16 games, making 101 tackles, including 67 solo. He had one sack for four yards with two tackles for loss. He forced one fumble, while breaking up four passes. Poyer had a solid outing in the win over Pittsburgh on Monday, registering six tackles, including four solo. See which team to pick here.

Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs are the defending champions and they've won 10 of their last 12 games on the road. Kansas City is also 16-3 in its last 19 games against an opponent from the AFC. The Chiefs did suffer a 20-17 setback against the Bills on Dec. 10, but rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice was effective in the loss.

Rice finished with seven receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo. He ended the regular season with seven touchdown receptions and he's found the end zone in three of his last five games overall. In last week's victory over the Dolphins, Rice hauled in eight receptions on 12 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 16.3 yards per catch and he had three receptions of at least 20 yards against Miami. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, predicting 48 total points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can see the model's NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine

So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills in the NFL playoffs 2024, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Bills spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model on a 183-129 roll on NFL picks, and find out.