The Kansas City Chiefs have reached the Super Bowl in four of the last five seasons, including a 38-35 win over the Philadelphia Eagles one year ago. On Sunday, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will seek a third Super Bowl title in that span when they face the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58. The matchup will take place at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, with the 49ers looking for their first Lombardi Trophy in three decades. San Francisco is also aiming to avenge a head-to-head loss to Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV, when the Chiefs overcame a second-half deficit to win their first Super Bowl of the Patrick Mahomes era. 

Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET in Las Vegas on CBS and Paramount+. San Francisco is a two-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. 49ers odds. Before locking in any 49ers vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2024 NFL Super Bowl on an incredible 184-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It also is on a 38-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Niners vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Niners:

  • Chiefs vs. 49ers spread: 49ers -2
  • Chiefs vs. 49ers over/under: 47.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. 49ers money line: 49ers -127, Chiefs +107
  • SF: 49ers are 9-10 against the spread this season
  • KC: Chiefs are 12-7-1 against the spread this season
  • Chiefs vs. 49ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Chiefs vs. 49ers streaming: Paramount+ (try free for seven days)

Why the 49ers can cover

On defense, San Francisco's havoc creation is elite, including a league-best 22 interceptions and 15.5% defensive turnover rate. That led to 28 takeaways in 17 regular season games and the 49ers also ranked firmly in the top eight in total yards allowed (303.9 per game), rushing yards allowed (89.7 per game), yards allowed per pass attempt (6.4), and sacks (48).

On offense, the 49ers keep pressure on opponents with balance, becoming the first NFL team since 2004 with a 4,000-yard passer and four players with at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage. San Francisco led the NFL in yards per play (6.6), yards per drive (37.8), red zone efficiency (67.2%), and points per drive (2.70) this season. The 49ers erupted for 34 points and 413 total yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game and had only 18 giveaways in 17 regular season games. That goes along with top-four marks in passing yards (257.9 per game) and rushing yards (140.5 per game), as well as the most rushing touchdowns (27) in the NFL. See which team to pick here.

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City's offense is dangerous, scoring points on 39.3% of offensive possessions during the 2023 season. The Chiefs averaged 2.01 points per drive, with top-10 marks in total yards per game (351.3), yards per drive (33.3), first downs (350), passing yards (246.4 per game), passing touchdowns (28), and third down efficiency (43.6%). Kansas City is also upping its production on the ground in the 2024 NFL playoffs and San Francisco has yielded 159.0 rushing yards per game in two playoff contests.

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes is the first quarterback in NFL history to make four Super Bowl starts before the age of 30. He is third all-time with 14 playoff wins, and Mahomes has the best six-year statistics in NFL history in passing touchdowns and passing touchdowns. In addition, Mahomes is 14-3 in the playoffs and has 39 touchdowns with only seven interceptions in postseason action. The Chiefs gave up only 10 points in the AFC Championship Game and are yielding only 13.7 points per game and 5.0 yards per play in the playoffs. Kansas City is also the only NFL team since 2011 to allow fewer than 28 points in every game this season. See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. 49ers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under the total, calling for 45 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins 49ers vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 49ers vs. Chiefs spread to pick in the 2024 Super Bowl, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.