The Green Bay Packers aim to maintain an upward trajectory when they host the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football. The Packers are 5-6 overall and 3-2 at home this season, and Green Bay will face Kansas City for the first time since Week 9 of the 2021 campaign. Kansas City is 8-3 overall and 4-1 on the road this season, and the Chiefs enter Week 13 as the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET in Green Bay. The Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 43.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. Packers odds. Before you make any Packers vs. Chiefs picks or NFL predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season and is 22-8 straight-up the last two weeks.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Packers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Packers:

  • Chiefs vs. Packers spread: Chiefs -5.5
  • Chiefs vs. Packers over/under: 43.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Packers money line: Chiefs -251, Packers +207
  • KC: Chiefs are 7-4 against the spread this season
  • GB: Packers are 6-5 against the spread this season
  • Chiefs vs. Packers picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Chiefs vs. Packers live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs are traditionally led by a dominant offense, headlined by Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. While Kansas City remains stout on that side of the ball, the team's defense has performed at an elite level in 2023. The Chiefs are allowing only 16.5 points per game, ranking in the top three of the NFL. Kansas City is also giving up only 1.47 points per drive and yielding points on only 25.9% of possessions. The Chiefs are No. 4 in the league in total yards allowed (290.0 per game) and passing yards allowed (176.6 per game), and opponents are averaging only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. 

Kansas City is also giving up a completion rate of just 61.6%, and the Chiefs are in the top five with 37 sacks. Kansas City is also facing a Green Bay offense that is below average in scoring (21.0 points per game). The Packers are also below the middle of the NFL in rushing yards (1,130), yards per rush attempt (4.1), and red zone efficiency, with Green Bay scoring a touchdown on only 50% of trips inside the 20-yard line. See which team to pick here.

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay's defense has been frisky this season, and that is especially true in recent days. The Packers are in the top 10 of the NFL in allowing only 20.4 points per game, and Green Bay is allowing only 18.3 points per game in the last seven matchups. Green Bay is in the top 10 of the league in passing yards allowed (2,256), and the Packers are in the top eight of the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed (12) and red zone efficiency allowed (48.6%). 

Kansas City has its worst offensive numbers for the franchise since 2018, including the lowest marks in points per game, yards per game, yards per play, and third down efficiency. The Chiefs also have 19 turnovers and below-average marks in rushing yards (106.5 per game) and yards per carry (4.2). On offense, no team has fewer fumbles lost (two) than Green Bay, and the Packers are in the top quartile of the league in turnover avoidance (12) and third down efficiency (43.6%). See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Packers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under the total, with neither quarterback projected to throw multiple touchdown passes. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

Who wins Packers vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 175-126 roll on NFL picks, and find out.