The Detroit Lions will hope to take another step towards their first division title in 30 years when they host the NFC North-rival Green Bay Packers on Thursday in their traditional NFL Thanksgiving Day game. First-place Detroit (8-2), which owns a 2 ½-game lead over Minnesota, hasn't captured a division crown since winning the NFC Central in 1993 with a 10-6 record. The Lions are coming off their third straight victory, a 31-26 triumph over Chicago and have won four consecutive meetings with Green Bay (4-6) after rolling past the Packers 34-20 in Week 4. Detroit is 12-8-1 against Green Bay on Thanksgiving and 37-44-2 all-time on the holiday. Packers running back Aaron Jones has been ruled out with an ankle injury.

Kickoff at Ford Field is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. Detroit is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Lions vs. Packers odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Before making any Packers vs. Lions picks of your own, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's Advanced Computer Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Lions vs. Packers and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Packers vs. Lions:

  • Lions vs. Packers spread: Detroit -8.5
  • Lions vs. Packers over/under: 47.5 points
  • Lions vs. Packers money line: Detroit -412, Green Bay +318
  • DET: Lions are 4-0 against the spread in their last four meetings with Green Bay
  • GB: Packers are 4-7 ATS on Thanksgiving in the Super Bowl era
  • Lions vs. Packers picks: See picks here
  • Lions vs. Packers live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Lions can cover

Detroit is 16-4 since Week 9 of the 2022 season and defeated Green Bay for the third time during that stretch in their first meeting this year. David Montgomery had his best performance of 2023 in that contest, rushing for 121 yards and three touchdowns. The 26-year-old running back is fifth in the NFL with a career-high-tying eight scoring runs in just seven games and leads the Lions with 577 rushing yards as he seeks his second 1,000-yard season in the league.

Wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown has hauled in a TD pass in four of his last six outings, a stretch that began in the win at Green Bay, and ranks fifth in the NFL with 898 receiving yards and seventh with 73 catches. On the other side of the ball, defensive end Aidan Hutchinson leads Detroit with 5.5 sacks after notching one against the Bears on Sunday. The 23-year-old is the first player in league history to register at least 15 sacks and four interceptions over his first two seasons. See which team to pick here.

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay squandered a lead with less than 5 ½ minutes remaining in the fourth quarter last Sunday, but marched down the field on the next possession to regain it. After being aided by a defensive pass interference penalty on third-and-20, Jordan Love connected with rookie wideout Dontayvion Wicks for a 35-yard gain and threw a 24-yard pass to Romeo Doubs two plays later for what proved to be the winning score. Love finished with a career-high 322 passing yards, marking the first time a Packers quarterback had a 300-yard performance since Aaron Rodgers in Week 14 of the 2021 season.

Doubs has made a touchdown catch in four of his last five contests and leads Green Bay with seven after hauling in three scoring passes as a rookie last year. The 23-year-old had just one reception in two meetings with Detroit in 2022, but had a season-high nine catches for a career-best 95 yards in the Packers' 34-20 loss to the Lions in Week 4 this campaign. Rookie wideout Jayden Reed leads Green Bay with 463 receiving yards and was the team's top rusher last Sunday as he had three carries for 46 yards and a touchdown. See which team to pick here.

How to make Lions vs. Packers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under the point total, predicting 44 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the model's NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine

So who wins Lions vs. Packers on Thanksgiving Day, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Lions spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.