We are nearly two months into the 2023 regular season and teams are starting to show us who they are. For some, they've revealed through the first six weeks that a postseason berth is not in the cards and fanbases are likely more focused on the early mock drafts than the early playoff picture. With teams that have gotten off on the wrong foot, it's oftentimes wise to put them on the radar for potentially trying to shake things up in the form of a change atop the coaching masthead.
Below, we're going to take the temperature of a handful of head coaches across the league and see if their seats are hot enough that a firing could be imminent.
1. Matt Eberflus, Bears
Chicago is 1-5 on the season and in last place in the NFC North. Had they not beaten the Commanders in Week 5, Eberflus could very well have been shown the door after that Thursday game with the Bears in the midst of a mini-bye. So far, Eberflus' tenure has not gone as the Bears front office had hoped. He is 1-5 (4-19 overall as head coach) entering Week 7 and with Justin Fields (thumb) injured it's hard to imagine things turning around anytime soon. While the offense is a concern, the defense -- Eberflus's specialty coming over as a former defensive coordinator with the Colts -- hasn't been up to par either. The Bears are still in the bottom half of the league in most categories, including 29th in points allowed.
Four of their next six games are on the road before they reach their Week 13 bye. If they don't show signs of life by that juncture, that could be a spot where they make a change. And if they pile up a few catastrophic weeks in a row, it could come even sooner.
2. Bill Belichick, Patriots
This is the hottest Bill Belichick's seat has ever been as the head coach of the Patriots. With the team 1-5 on the season and showing no real signs of life or fight, it does seem like we might be at the end of his Hall-of-Fame-caliber tenure with the organization.
While we have Belichick ranked No. 2 on this list, his pedigree probably saves him from an in-season firing. Even with reports that Robert Kraft would be open to firing Belichick, I think that type of a seismic decision comes after the season in the form of a formal announcement where they decide to "part ways" rather than use the "fired" verbiage. For all he's done for the organization, it's hard to imagine Kraft opting for the unceremonious nature of an in-season firing of someone who will be linked to the franchise well past his coaching tenure.
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Still, it hasn't been pretty in Foxborough. Over the last three games, the Patriots have been outscored 93-20, the club is averaging just 12 points per game (31st in the NFL), and Mac Jones has continued to regress. Part of the problem for Belichick is that he is also the de facto GM and his poor roster building over the last few years has exposed him to a premature ending with the franchise. Again, it likely won't happen during the regular season, but it does feel like his prolific time as Patriots coach is about to end with a whimper.
3. Brandon Staley, Chargers
Staley is a familiar figure in these sorts of lists as the Chargers head coach has largely underperformed throughout his tenure. While an above .500 (21-18) record and a playoff berth a season ago look good on paper, the Chargers -- given their talent on the roster -- should be a much more competitive team under Staley and the head coach has routinely made a number of questionable decisions that have helped contribute to losses. For a minute, it felt like Staley could have been fired following last season's playoff collapse against the Jaguars where they blew a 27-point lead, but ownership decided to keep him aboard for 2023.
Now, L.A. finds itself under .500 following the Week 6 loss to the Cowboys on Monday night and has a trip to Kansas City to face the Chiefs on deck for Week 7, which could send them even further down the standings. They do get some relief with a home game against the Bears and then a matchup with the Jets the following two weeks, but then the schedule ramps up a bit with games against the Lions, Packers, and Ravens. That Baltimore game on "Sunday Night Football" in Week 12 could be one to monitor. The Ravens are a serious playoff contender this season and if a losing skid culminates with another primetime loss, it could be the springboard for an in-season firing.
Defensively, the Chargers are giving up the second-most yards and rank 23rd in points allowed this season under Staley, who is a former defensive coordinator. Similar to Eberflus above, when your calling card is a key piece to your failures, that's a bad sign.
4. Mike Vrabel, Titans
Vrabel would be a hot commodity if he were ever let go from the Titans, but the team's 2-4 start to the season and last place standing in the AFC South opens up the conversation of his time in Tennessee possibly ending. It does feel like Tennessee could be due for a hard reset across the roster with Ryan Tannehill in the final year of his contract and Derrick Henry set to turn 30 this winter. The club hired Ran Carthon to be its new general manager last offseason and if he determines that the organization needs to enter a full rebuild, he could start that process by letting go of Vrabel and hand-pick his own head coach going forward.
Tennessee's schedule is not overly daunting, so it's hard to pinpoint a specific spot where the club would hit any sort of rock bottom that would warrant an in-season firing of Vrabel. In reality, his fate will likely be determined at the end of the season.
5. Ron Rivera, Commanders
Similar to Vrabel, Ron Rivera is playing under a new regime that merely adopted him rather than specifically chose him themselves. The Josh Harris-led ownership group has a lot on their plate to inject new life into the Commanders and a change across football operations wouldn't be surprising to see. Rivera has Washington at .500 at the moment, but the back half of the season does provide some cause for concern for the coach's prospects of keeping his job beyond this year.
Over their final six games, the Commanders play the Cowboys twice, the 49ers, Dolphins, Rams (road) and Jets (road). Outside of the possibility of teams resting starters, Washington is probably an underdog in each of those games, setting up the possibility of a 0-5 run to end the year. Under that circumstance, Rivera won't have much momentum to keep his job for 2024.
