The Kansas City Chiefs were the top team in the AFC during the regular season and earned the No. 1 seed in the NFL playoff bracket. While they're the 2021 Super Bowl favorites, the latest trends suggest you might want to avoid including them in your NFL bets and NFL picks this weekend. Since 2003, No. 1 seeds are just 12-20-1 against the spread in the Divisional Round.
The Chiefs are the biggest favorites of the week, laying 10 points against the Browns on Sunday with the over-under at 57. according to the latest Divisional Round NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the Saints are three-point favorites against the Buccaneers, according to the current NFL spreads, with the total at 52. All of the 2021 Divisional Round NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best 2021 Divisional Round NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Top NFL predictions for the Divisional Round
One of the top Divisional Round NFL picks the model recommends: Saints vs. Buccaneers goes over the total of 52. New Orleans began the season as four-point favorites over Tampa Bay in Week 1 and covered comfortably in a 34-23 win. That game also cleared the over (48.5) with plenty of room to spare.
Then, the Saints throttled the Buccaneers 38-3 as three-point underdogs in Week 9. That game went under the total (51), but the lack of offense from Tom Brady and the Buccaneers likely won't be duplicated. The trends point strongly to this game going over as well. In fact, these teams are a combined 20-14 to the over this season.
The model predicts that Alvin Kamara will put up over 100 yards of total offense and scores, while Brady will throw for almost 300 yards. The teams combine for 53 points, providing value on the over.
How to make Divisional Round NFL picks
The model has also made the call on every other game on the NFL Divisional Round schedule and says one team covers in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence during the 2021 NFL Divisional Round? And which team is a must-back? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below, then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up nearly $7,900 on its top-rated NFL picks.
NFL odds, matchups for the Divisional Round
Sunday, Jan. 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (-3, 52)