NFL Week 11 spreads, picks: Texans' playoff push continues vs. Cardinals, Packers cover at Lambeau Field

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It felt like we were on the verge of a clean sweep. We nearly ran the table with my five locks of the week in Week 10. I had the Cardinals upset along with the Lions and Steelers covers dialed in, but the Ravens and Bills let us down in a big way. Baltimore was up 15 and blew it and Buffalo blew it essentially from the opening kickoff on Monday night. That brought us to 3-2 ATS with those locks, but we were still profitable as we rode Arizona ML at plus money.

Overall, it was a ho-hum 6-6-2 ATS showing here and we'll look to gain a bit more momentum as we look to Week 11, which, of course, starts with my five locks of the week.

2023 record

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 25-25
ATS: 73-71-6
ML: 93-57

All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

Cardinals at Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The C.J. Stroud hype train has blown past Offensive Rookie of the Year Station and is now barreling toward MVP Crossing. The Texans rookie has been remarkable this season, including yet another game-winning drive in Week 10 over the Cincinnati Bengals. While Houston has not historically fared well as a favorite (0-6 in the last six games under this circumstance), I think it's entering a new era. Under Stroud, the Texans are 5-2 ATS over their last seven games and now face a Cardinals team that has struggled away from Arizona, owning a 1-4 ATS road record. They'll be more competitive with Kyler Murray under center, but this offense still has plenty of limitations. As for the Texans offense with Stroud at the helm, he has a nice matchup against an Arizona secondary that is allowing a 101.0 passer rating (31st) and a 69.1% completion percentage (28th) to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Projected score: Texans 28, Cardinals 20
The pick: Texans -4

Chargers at Packers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Both of these teams are so hard to trust. The offenses have been inconsistent and -- as it relates to L.A. -- the coaching is also suspect. While the Chargers may have the better quarterback in this matchup in Justin Herbert, getting a field goal with the hook with a Packers team at Lambeau Field just feels like the right way to lean. And if Green Bay can blanket Keenan Allen and force Herbert to find another option in the passing game, he'll probably be left in the middle of the sea without a paddle. When targeting Allen this season, Herbert is completing 75.3% of his passes. When targeting any other Chargers pass catcher, that drops to 63.5%. Slow down Allen and you send the L.A. offense into disarray, allowing Green Bay to keep this close.

Projected score: Chargers 24, Packers 21
The pick: Packers +3

Raiders at Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Dolphins were on bye in Week 10 and spent that time getting healthy. The club looks like it could get rookie running back De'Von Achane back in the fold as they have opened up his practice window, making their high-flying offense even more dangerous. While the Raiders turnaround under interim head coach Antonio Pierce has been one of the better storylines to follow over the last few weeks, they're running into a buzzsaw with the Dolphins, specifically the Dolphins at home. At Hard Rock Stadium, Miami is 4-0 SU and ATS and is winning those games by an average of 25 points. With Aidan O'Connell at quarterback -- who has scored less than 20 points in two of his three starts -- I have a hard time seeing Las Vegas keeping up offensively. They are also 3-0 ATS as double-digit favorites under Mike McDaniel.

Projected score: Dolphins 33, Raiders 17
The pick: Dolphins -12

Titans at Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars were downright bad in Week 10. The offense couldn't move the ball against San Francisco and Lawrence wilted with three turnovers. That said, this is a good bounce-back opportunity for Jacksonville. The Titans also suffered a blowout loss in Week 10, but I think that's more who they are with a rookie quarterback under center in Will Levis than being a team that simply laid an egg. In his last two starts, Levis is 0-2 and has thrown zero touchdowns with two interceptions, and is completing just 52.6% of his passes. The Jaguars defense -- which has played well for most of this season -- should be able to contain Levis rather easily. Meanwhile, Lawrence has dominated AFC South opponents as of late. He's 5-1 against his division rivals and his teams are averaging 28.7 points in those games. If Jacksonville sniffs that point total, I don't see how Tennessee meets them there. The Titans have also failed to cover in five straight games outside of Nissan Stadium.

Projected score: Jaguars 27, Titans 17
The pick: Jaguars -6.5

Steelers at Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Cards on the table: I put the Browns pick in prior to the news of Deshaun Watson's season-ending shoulder injury. I made the selection with the thought that he was turning a corner with his perfect 14-for-14 second half last week in the comeback win over the Ravens. While that was the genesis of the pick, I'm going to stick with the Browns here. Their defense has been superb this season, especially at home. Pittsburgh's offense has been suspect throughout the year and I think they can gut out an ugly win led by the defense. Cleveland's unit is holding opponents to just 10.2 points per game at home this season, which has helped it to a 4-1 ATS record at Cleveland Browns Stadium. It won't be pretty, but this could be a statement victory in Myles Garrett's Defensive Player of the Year bid.

Projected score: Browns 23, Steelers 20
The pick: Browns -2.5