With just five weeks remaining, we're now in the stretch run of the 2021 regular season. Even 13 weeks in, the NFL still has plenty of surprises up its sleeve. Last week, we saw the Lions earn their first win of the year with a last-second touchdown against the Vikings, while the Patriots were able to get a win in Buffalo by throwing just three total passes. While it's hard to imagine seeing a team rival New England's Naval Academy offense in Week 14, there will undoubtedly be some unexpected twists and turns in this latest slate of games.
Below, we'll give our picks for all of Week 14, starting with our five locks of the Week, which are 7-3 ATS over the last two weeks and 37-24-4 ATS on the year.
Locks of the Week ATS: 37-24-4
The Ravens are just really hard to trust at the moment, as their offense under Lamar Jackson looks completely disjointed. Over the last three weeks, Baltimore's offense is averaging just 4.2 yards per play, which is the third worst in the NFL during that stretch. They are also coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers, which has them teetering a bit in the current playoff picture in the AFC. Meanwhile, they get a Browns team that needs a win to keep its season alive and is well-rested after getting the Week 13 bye. The Ravens are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
Projected score: Browns 27, Ravens 24
The pick: Browns -2.5
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Cowboys at Washington
Washington has reeled off four straight wins, but it'll face a pretty tough challenge in the Cowboys. Dallas is looking to get back on track offensively after a few spotty performances over the last three weeks. Even as it has cooled off, this is still a potent unit that is averaging 6.1 yards per play on the season. While Taylor Heinicke has been a fantastic story, I'm not sure he'll be able to keep pace with Dallas here. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS over their last six road games and are 7-0 ATS against the NFC.
Projected score: Cowboys 28, Washington 21
The pick: Cowboys -4
The Rams haven't gained my trust in big spots yet. They are under .500 ATS on the season and were just on a three-game losing streak before being gifted with the Jaguars on the schedule in Week 13. Meanwhile, the Cardinals continue to look like the class of the division, and both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins looked sharp in their return to action last week. I'll gladly lay less than a field goal to the home team that is also 9-3 ATS (tied for the second-best mark in the NFL).
Projected score: Cardinals 33, Rams 27
The pick: Cardinals -2.5
Bills at Buccaneers
The type of loss that the Buffalo Bills suffered at the hands of the Patriots last week has the ability to break a team's spirit. Even after the contest you started to see the team splintering a bit, so they'd be a natural fade regardless in Week 14. What turns this into a lock, however, is that they'll now have to travel down to Tampa Bay on a short week to face the Buccaneers, who are fresh off a dominating win over the Falcons. This is a nightmare scenario for Buffalo as it gears up to play Tom Brady, who is 32-3 for his career in the regular season against this club.
Projected score: Buccaneers 33, Bills 24
The pick: Buccaneers -3
Russell Wilson has started to turn the corner over the last few weeks after struggling to pass the ball in his immediate return to action following that finger injury. Over the last two weeks, Wilson is completing 73.5% of his passes with a 106.1 passer rating and now heads to Houston to face a lowly Texans team that is giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season. Houston is also in the midst of some QB uncertainty after Tyrod Taylor was benched last week against Indianapolis. No matter who is under center, however, Seattle should be able to create a sizable lead.
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Texans 17
The pick: Seahawks -7.5
Rest of the bunch
Steelers at Vikings
Projected score: Steelers 24, Vikings 23
The pick: Steelers +3
Jaguars at Titans
Projected score: Titans 28, Jaguars 17
The pick: Titans -8.5
Falcons at Panthers
Projected score: Falcons 24, Panthers 20
The pick: Falcons +2.5
Lions at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 27, Lions 20
The pick: Lions +7.5