For the first time since 2018, the Chicago Bears will meet the New England Patriots. Gillette Stadium will host Monday Night Football, with Justin Fields and the Bears facing off against the returning Mac Jones (ankle) and the Patriots. New England is on a five-game winning streak against the Bears and 4-0 all-time in home games against Chicago. The Patriots are 3-3 overall this season, with the Bears coming in with a 2-4 record and three consecutive losses.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium. Caesars Sportsbook lists New England as an 8.5-point favorite in its latest Patriots vs. Bears odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 40. Before locking in any Bears vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 146-107 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Patriots vs. Bears and just locked in its picks and MNF predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Patriots:

  • Patriots vs. Bears spread: New England -8.5
  • Patriots vs. Bears over/under: 40 points
  • Patriots vs. Bears money line: Chicago +300, New England -385
  • Bears: Bears are 5-7-1 ATS after a loss since the start of last season
  • Patriots: Patriots are 3-1 ATS in their last four with a rest disadvantage
  • Patriots vs. Bears picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Patriots can cover

On offense, the Patriots are above-average this season, averaging more than 350 total yards and 23.5 points per game. New England is especially potent on the ground, averaging 4.4 yards per carry with 788 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in six games. Rhamondre Stevenson has 237 rushing yards in the last two games, and the Bears are in the bottom tier of the NFL in rushing defense, rushing touchdowns allowed, and yards per carry allowed.

The Patriots are giving up only 18.8 points per game and have created 12 turnovers in six weeks. Chicago's offense is second-worst in the NFL in scoring, averaging just 15.5 points per game, and the Bears have the fewest completions (63) through six weeks of any NFL teams since 1982. Chicago is in the bottom two in passer rating, completion rate, passing yards per game, and sack rate allowed, with the Bears also ranking No. 28 in total offense and red zone efficiency. See which team to pick here.

Why the Bears can cover 

Chicago is 5-4-1 against the spread in non-conference games since the start of the 2020 season. Underdogs have fared well in the NFL this season too. In fact, they are 54-37-2 ATS this season, and underdogs of four points or more are 31-16 ATS.

Chicago ranks second in rushing at almost 171 yards per game. Fields has rushed for 282 this season and averages 5.2 per carry, but David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert do the heavy lifting. Montgomery has 246 yards despite missing almost two games, while Herbert has 402 yards and averages 6.4 per carry. New England gives up 4.7 yards per attempt (22nd). The Patriots also cough the ball up, tied for 29th in the league with 11 turnovers. Chicago still has playmakers on defense, including Roquan Smith (two sacks) and Eddie Jackson (three interceptions). See which team to pick here.

How to make Patriots vs. Bears picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total. In fact, it's calling for 46 combined points. It also says one of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model's MNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Bears vs. Patriots on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bears vs. Patriots spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.