The New England Patriots have been the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl the last three seasons. They were going off at 6-1 Super Bowl odds back in September, while their opponents on Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams, were the favorites in the NFC at 10-1. Only one preseason favorite, the 2016 Patriots, have won it all the last six years. New England is making its ninth appearance in the big game the last 18 seasons, while the Rams are seeking their first title since January 2000. The latest Patriots vs. Rams odds list New England as a 2.5-point favorite, up one from where the line opened. Meanwhile, the total has settled at 56 in the live Patriots vs. Rams odds. Can Sean McVay and Jared Goff out-scheme the legendary pairing of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? Before you make your Patriots vs. Rams picks, be sure to look at the 2019 Super Bowl predictions from SportsLine's Projection Model.
SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering Super Bowl LIII on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it is 7-3 on all against-the-spread picks in the 2019 NFL playoffs. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has dialed in on Patriots vs. Rams (stream live on fuboTV) in the Atlanta Super Bowl and locked in a point-spread pick. We can tell you the computer is leaning over, but it also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations, making it a must-back. That pick is only available at SportsLine.
The model knows the Patriots' offense has exploded in the postseason. One of the biggest reasons why: their ability to extend drives on third down. New England has converted 20-of-33 third-down attempts in wins over the Chargers and Chiefs and has averaged 39 points and 511 yards of total offense per game because of it.
Rookie back Sony Michel has had plenty of success running the football on early downs to set up manageable third downs this postseason. But even when he's faced third-and-long, Brady has done an effective job of bailing the offense out and keeping his team on the field. The end result is that the Patriots are scoring more points, extending possessions, and keeping the opposing offense off the field. That could be the key to slowing down a high-octane offense like the Rams, forcing Goff to watch from the sidelines.
But just because New England is running the ball extremely well doesn't mean it will cover the 2019 Super Bowl spread against a young Los Angeles team that just became the first visiting team to win a playoff game in New Orleans in the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era.
The model also knows that one of the keys for the Rams is that they remain committed to running the football. L.A. has covered its last four games and averaged a staggering 193.5 yards rushing during that span. In games where the Rams have rushed for fewer than 100 yards, the Rams were just 2-3-1 against the spread this season.
Whether it's Todd Gurley, C.J. Anderson, or some combination of the two, the Rams need to be able to grab big chunks of yardage on the ground to open things up for quarterback Jared Goff through the air. Goff had a 112.3 passer rating on play-action passes and the Rams have led the NFL in percentage of plays utilizing play-action the last two seasons to help advance their turnaround.
Who wins the 2019 Super Bowl? And which side of the Patriots vs. Rams spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Super Bowl spread you need to be all over, all from the red-hot computer model that's returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons, and find out.