This will be the last draft for Pittsburgh Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert, who is planning to retire after 22 years with the team. There has been ample speculation that Colbert will look to leave his team with a quarterback of the future as a parting gift, but it might be difficult to accomplish that from the No. 20 overall pick.
That's why it's interesting that Colbert on Monday expressed a willingness to move up and down the draft board, indicating that his team would calculate the value of every spot in the draft. But he also mentioned two specific spots: "We'll guesstimate what it'll cost to move from 20 to 7 and from 20 back down to 32," Colbert said.
The New York Giants own the No. 7 overall pick, which is the second of their two first-rounders (No. 5). The Giants have been mentioned as a possible trade-down candidate due to the various holes on their roster and the presence of a new management team and coaching staff. But what would it take for the Steelers to get from 20 to 7?
According to the old Jimmy Johnson trade chart, the No. 7 overall pick is worth 1,500 points. According to that chart, the Steelers would have to surrender their entire draft to make up that value, but even then Nos. 20 (850), 52 (380), 84 (170), 138 (37), 208 (6.6), 225 (1), and 241 (1) still come up short. More likely, some combination of 20, next year's first-round pick, and a Day 2 or Day 3 selection would get it done.
The modern update of the chart created by Rich Hill values the No. 7 pick at 426 points, and the Nos. 20 (269), 52 (109), and 84 (51) selections would be just enough (429 points) to get the Steelers up the board and into that spot.
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart at overthecap.com, which is based on contract values, would actually allow the Steelers to jump from 20 to 7 only by using their fourth-round pick plus one or two more Day 3 picks. That seems unlikely, though, given the history of trade-up cost.
The Lions own the No. 32 overall pick, courtesy of the Rams, thanks to the Matthew Stafford trade. They have plenty of ways to make up the value between that selection and No. 20, as they also have the Nos. 34, 66, and 97 picks in this draft.
In all likelihood, teams have their own internal charts that they use to value draft picks and the true cost would be somewhere in between those recommended by each of these models. Of course, it's possible that Colbert just threw out the Nos. 7 and 32 picks randomly and neither spot is where he's planning to go, in which case the cost could be wildly different.
