The Houston Texans (9-7) and Indianapolis Colts (9-7) will battle for a playoff spot when they close the regular season with a Saturday night football showdown. Houston has picked up two wins over Tennessee in the last three weeks to move into a three-way tie with the Colts and Jaguars atop the AFC South standings. If Jacksonville loses to Tennessee on Sunday, the winner of this game would also win the division title. Indianapolis bounced back from a loss to Atlanta with a 23-20 win over the Raiders last week. 

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Houston is a two-point favorite in the latest Texans vs. Colts odds while the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Before you make any Colts vs. Texans picks or NFL predictions, you need to see the NFL betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Texans vs. Colts and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can see the model's picks only at SportsLine. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Colts vs. Texans:

  • Texans vs. Colts spread: Houston -2
  • Texans vs. Colts over/under: 47.5 points
  • Texans vs. Colts money line: Houston -129, Indianapolis +108
  • HOU: QB C.J. Stroud ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game (274.6)
  • IND: LB Zaire Franklin leads the league in tackles (170)
  • Texans vs. Colts picks: See picks here
  • Texans vs. Colts live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Texans can cover

Indianapolis has not performed well at this time of the year, losing five straight January games while covering the spread just one time in those contests. Houston cruised to a 26-3 win over Tennessee last week, as quarterback C.J. Stroud completed 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards and one touchdown after missing the previous two games due to a concussion. He connected with wide receiver Nico Collins seven times for 80 yards in the win.

Stroud had 384 passing yards and two touchdowns against Indianapolis in Week 2, with Collins catching seven passes for 146 yards and a score. The Colts have only covered the spread six times in their last 19 games against division opponents, while Houston has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 road games. The Texans have more offensive firepower than the Colts now that Stroud is back on the field, as he forms a deadly duo with Collins. See which team to pick here.

Why the Colts can cover

Indianapolis has played improved defense over the second half of the season. Over their past eight games, the Colts have allowed 21.4 points per game and gone 6-2. That's a dramatic improvement over their first eight games of the season, when they allowed an NFL-worst 28.6 points per contest.

In addition, running back Jonathan Taylor enters the game on a roll. The 5-foot-10, 226-pound Taylor, whose season began with a contentious contract squabble with the organization, has scored at least one touchdown in five straight games. That's the second longest active streak in the league. See which team to pick here.

How to make Texans vs. Colts picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under the point total, predicting 47 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the model's NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine

So who wins Colts vs. Texans on Saturday, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Colts spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model on a 181-129 roll on NFL picks, and find out.