Two teams in the thick of the playoff hunt square off in a must-win Thursday Night Football game as the Houston Texans host the Miami Dolphins at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Dolphins are scuffling after three losses in their last four games as injuries begin to mount, but the Texans are hitting their stride, keyed up by a defense that has propelled them to four straight wins and sole possession of the AFC South lead. Both teams are 4-3 straight-up. The Texans opened as 7-point favorites and are laying 7.5 in the current Dolphins vs. Texans odds. The Over-Under, which opened at 45.5, is now 44.5. Houston is -370 on the money line (risk $370 to win $100), while Miami is +280 (risk $100 to win $280). Before you make any Dolphins vs. Texans picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. It went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
It went 10-4 straight-up in a wild Week 7, including calling the Patriots' huge win over the Bears, improving its record to a blistering 71-34 on the season. And when it comes to all of its top-rated picks, it is now on a strong 62-43 run. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.
Now, the model has simulated the Dolphins vs. Texans 10,000 times. We can tell you the over is hitting in 58 percent of simulations, but the model has also produced a strong against-the-spread pick that hits well over 50 percent of the time. This pick is available only at SportsLine.
The model has factored in that the Texans' aggressive defense is firing on all cylinders behind Pro Bowler J.J. Watt. The defensive end is having a sensational season and is among the league leaders in sacks with seven and forced fumbles with four. Defensively, the team is yielding just 12.0 points per contest over its last three.
On the other side of the ball, running back Lamar Miller is leading the charge with 371 yards and one score. Miller had a season-high 100 rushing yards last week against Jacksonville and found the end zone on the ground for the first time this season. His 22 carries were the most since last November.
But just because the Texans are atop their division doesn't mean they'll cover on Thursday Night Football.
Dolphins backup quarterback Brock Osweiler, who will start Thursday in place of Ryan Tannehill (shoulder), is 1-1 in his two starts this season, beating the Bears before losing to the Lions. He's completing 68 percent of his passes for 654 yards and six touchdowns.
Helping to keep the pressure off Osweiler is the effective one-two punch of running backs Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake. Gore is tops with 332 rushing yards, while Drake is averaging nearly five yards per carry and has 25 receptions for 160 yards and three total scores. The run game will be relied on with Dolphins receivers Albert Wilson (hip, IR) and Kenny Stills (groin) both out for Thursday Night Football.
Houston has also struggled covering this season, going just 2-5 against the spread. The Dolphins have fared much better, going 4-3.
Who wins Dolphins vs. Texans? And which side covers well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.