Upset alert in Week 15? Why these favorites could fall, including Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs

Don't sleep on these favorites losing outright in Week 15

Just four weeks remain in the 2025 regular season, and the NFL is coming off one of the entire campaign's more hectic slates. Upsets sprinkled throughout the weekend, including arguably the most jarring of all with the New Orleans Saints taking down the Buccaneers in Tampa, Florida. While that upset wasn't on our bingo card last week, we did correctly pinpoint the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans as live dogs.

Now, we turn our attention to Week 15, which is an absolutely loaded crop of games, including the first CBS slate featuring teams with a combined .600+ season win percentage in December or later in the last 10 years. Playoff stakes hinge on several contests, putting each snap under the microscope. On top of projecting these games to be wildly entertaining, there's a number of home underdogs, which always puts our antenna up. As we once again identify some favorites that could be on upset alert for Week 15, three of them are trying to win and cover on the road, which is always a tall ask.

All lines via DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonus bets if their first bet of at least $5 wins.

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at New England Patriots

• When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Where: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Patriots ML odds: -105

The fate of the AFC East could be determined on Sunday when Buffalo rolls into Foxborough to take on the Patriots. The second of two matchups between these division rivals this season, New England goes for the sweep after defeating the Bills in Buffalo in Week 5. However, the Patriots look to do it as underdogs despite being at Gillette Stadium.

Part of the reason why the Bills may be favored is that this game simply means more to them, so they could be playing with more desperation. They are currently two games back in the division but also still fighting for wild card positioning as the No. 6 seed. They are also getting MVP-like play from Josh Allen, who tallied four total touchdowns last week in a come-from-behind win over the Bengals.

While you can make the case as to why the Bills are favored, the Patriots should be a tough out, especially since they're fresh off the Week 14 bye. In their previous matchup, New England was able to bottle up James Cook (15 carries for 49 yards), while getting strong contributions from Stefon Diggs (146 yards on 10 catches) in the receiving game. If the Patriots can roll out a similar formula, there's a path to victory. 

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

• When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Where: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Bengals ML odds: +114

We had Cincinnati as a live dog last week, and it looked like the Bengals were going to pull off the upset over Buffalo for a minute, but they collapsed in the fourth quarter. That was the unofficial death blow to their playoff hopes, but they are still a difficult matchup for clubs down the stretch with Joe Burrow under center. Similarly, Baltimore's playoff hopes had a dent put into them with a loss to the Steelers in Week 14. While the Ravens had a couple of calls go against them in the losing effort, they still don't look quite right.

Specifically, Lamar Jackson is uncharacteristically dull. Whether it's due to injury or something else, the Ravens quarterback is lacking the explosion we've come to expect from him whenever he drops back. Last week, he completed just 54% of his passes and had a brutal interception. If that play continues from Jackson, that'll keep the Bengals within range throughout the afternoon -- and if Burrow can make a handful of plays, it wouldn't be surprising whatsoever to see them pull off the upset win at home.

Prisco's Week 15 NFL picks: Bills beat Patriots in AFC East battle, Packers knock off Broncos on road

Pete Prisco

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

• When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Where: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Chargers ML odds: +160

The Chiefs' season is on life support after Sunday night's home loss to the Texans. It was another outing in which the K.C. offense looked totally out of sync, and Patrick Mahomes put together arguably the worst game of his career. The three-time Super Bowl champion completed just 42.4% of his throws with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. One could argue that Mahomes is due to rebound. After watching them throughout this season, though, it's hard to see that actually unfolding in Week 15.

That's especially true as he faces a Chargers defense that just picked off Jalen Hurts four times on Monday night. Yes, Los Angeles is set to be on the road in a short week. But the Chargers, still jockeying for position in the wild-card race and within spitting distance of the Denver Broncos for first place in the AFC West, enter this game with plenty of motivation.

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos

• When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Broncos ML odds: +114

Everyone is going to fade the Broncos this week after Sunday's brutal beat to the Raiders, especially in conjunction with the Packers taking control of the NFC North with a win over the Bears, but that's not how these things work. While there are certain things that carry over from game to game, this heavyweight matchup is its own animal -- and the fact that Denver blew a cover as time expired in Week 14 won't have any bearing on Week 15.

A much more tangible angle for this game is how dominant the Broncos have been at Mile High this season, entering Sunday with a perfect 6-0 record. While Green Bay is 4-1-1 straight up on the road this season, Jordan Love and company are 2-4 against the spread away from Lambeau Field, so they've played in some tight games. If this is another coin-flip contest, the Broncos have shown us that they can squeak those out.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)

• When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Lions ML odds: +200

The Lions' defense is banged up in a major way, most notably losing Brian Branch for the year due to an Achilles injury. Given the issues that they've had on that side of the ball, it's understandable to see the odds drastically in favor of the Rams here, especially after Los Angeles posted 45 points in a blowout win over the Cardinals. That said, Detroit's offense is still one of the NFL's most potent units and just dropped 44 points in a win against the Dallas Cowboys.

If this turns into a track meet, I think that's something Dan Campbell's team would welcome, as it'd give the Lions arguably their best chance to pull off the upset. It also shouldn't be overlooked that the Lions have the rest advantage in this matchup after playing last Thursday. For a team that's been dealing with a ton of injuries, that small break could be just what the doctor ordered to get a touch healthier and surprise folks in Week 15.