Corner Picks: Best bets for Champions League as Inter take on Atletico Madrid, Barcelona face Napoli

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I can relate to Bayern Munich right now. Over the weekend, the German giants suffered another embarrassment, losing 3-2 to Bochum, the 11th-place team in Germany. It's the third-straight loss for Bayern, the first of which was a loss to league-leading Bayer Leverkusen last week. It leaves Bayern eight points behind Leverkusen, and it looks like the 11-year run of Bundesliga titles will come to an end.

The loss also killed our Weekend Parlay, capping off a disastrous 0-4 weekend. Going back to last week's Champions League matches, Corner Picks went 1-7 last week. I wish I could be like Bayern and blame the rest of Germany's teams for selling their star players to England instead of to me like they're supposed to, but I can't. All I can do is try harder to find winners and hope the luck evens out.

Thankfully, we've got four more Champions League matches this week to try and get things back in order.

Inter Milan vs. Atletico Madrid

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 20 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS/Paramount+

Inter are clearly the best team in Italy, and I've been mindlessly betting on it for weeks on end, but should that same philosophy apply to the Champions League? Probably not! While Inter have run roughshod through Serie A, they didn't win their Champions League group, finishing behind Real Sociedad on goal difference. Meanwhile, Atlético Madrid may only be in fourth place at home, but they crushed their Champions League group, including picking up four points in two matches against Lazio.

Should it matter? Probably not, because at the moment, Inter have been playing better overall. They've won eight straight and have lost only one match of their last 26, including five Champions League matches. Meanwhile, Madrid picked up a 5-0 win over Las Palmas this weekend but had lost the previous two. Furthermore, Atletico's attack hasn't been nearly as potent away from home, and I wouldn't be shocked if they approach this one just trying to stay within a goal for the return leg at home. The Pick: Inter Milan (-125)

PSV Eindhoven vs. Borussia Dortmund

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 20 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

PSV are one of the better stories of the Champions League so far. They finished second in the Eredivisie last season, meaning they had to go through the qualifying rounds to get into the competition. Then, once they worked their way in, they picked up eight points against Lens and Sevilla (as well as a draw against Arsenal) to squeeze into the knockout rounds. Of the 16 teams remaining, they are the biggest longshot left outside of Copenhagen. But this is a good draw for PSV!

Dortmund somehow won the Group of Death (its group included PSG, AC Milan, and Newcastle) with an expected goal (xG) differential of -2.6. They won the xG battle in only two of the six group-stage matches. They have yet to lose a Bundesliga match since, winning four and drawing four others, but they haven't been playing outstanding in the process. Still, betting PSV to win feels too optimistic. However, PSV are capable of putting the ball in the back of the net, and Dortmund's defensive "luck" has to balance out eventually. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-145)

Porto vs. Arsenal

Date: Wednesday, Feb. 21 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Porto are a good team and shouldn't be taken lightly, but they are catching Arsenal at a horrible time. The Gunners went through a terrible stretch in December that saw them win just one of seven matches, but they come into this game as winners of five straight. Making matters worse for Porto, Arsenal have outscored their opponents 21-2 in those five matches.

Also, while it's not a hard and fast rule, history suggests backing Premier League teams in the round of 16 is a safe strategy. While they haven't won every series, they have outscored opponents 78-44 in the last six seasons. Only the 2020 Champions League round of 16 saw the Premier League outscored (7-17), and that was during the pandemic in front of empty stadiums. The Pick: Arsenal (-140)

Napoli vs. Barcelona

Date: Wednesday, Feb. 21 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS/Paramount+

This match is a hot mess. Barcelona have been a major disappointment this season, as they are in third place in La Liga with no realistic hope of catching Real Madrid. Hell, they may not catch Girona. But then there's Napoli, which are having the worst title defense in recent memory. After winning Serie A last season, Napoli currently sit in ninth place and are on their third manager of the season. We also don't know if Napoli's best player (Victor Osimhen) will be available to play in this match as he came back from the Africa Cup of Nations with an injury.

The vibes around both these squads stink out loud. However, while Barcelona aren't happy, the unease is built more around the fact that they haven't lived up to the standard they set. On the whole, this is still a good team. Napoli are not. When you add in all the confusion and discord off the field, it's hard to put your faith in the Italian champions. Not even being the home team should provide comfort. Napoli have played 18 home matches across all competitions this season and won only seven of them. The Pick: Barcelona (+165)