No. 4 Florida State (12-0) will put its College Football Playoff fate in the hands of a backup quarterback when it faces No. 14 Louisville (10-2) in the 2023 ACC Championship Game on Saturday night. The Seminoles, who are playing without starting quarterback Jordan Travis (leg), will be starting either Tate Rodemaker or Brock Glenn under center. Louisville won its final five conference games to book its spot in the ACC title game, including a 23-0 win over then-No. 20 Duke. The Cardinals had that winning streak snapped in a rivalry game against Kentucky last week, marking their second loss of the campaign.

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium. The Seminoles are 1-point favorites in the latest Florida State vs. Louisville odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under is 46.5. Before locking in any 2023 ACC Championship Game picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine football expert Jimmie Kaylor

Kaylor is a NFL, college football and DFS expert for SportsLine, who has covered the NFL and college football for close to a decade as a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. His background as a former college football All-American and NFL player gives him a unique perspective when building his fantasy lineups and locking in his betting picks. He has his finger on the pulse of the college football landscape and has been cashing in big for the last two years. 

Kaylor has been red-hot all season, going 73-28-2 overall on his college football best bets for SportsLine this season so far. He is up over 46.05 units, returning a profit of $4,605 for $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed his picks this season is way up.

Now, he has set his sights on FSU vs. Louisville and just locked in his picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Kaylor's picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Louisville vs. FSU:

  • Louisville vs. Florida State spread: Florida State -1
  • Louisville vs. Florida State over/under: 46.5
  • Louisville vs. Florida State money line: Florida State -1119, Louisville -101
  • FSU: The Seminoles have won 11 consecutive ACC games.  
  • LVILLE: The Cardinals have won 11 of their last 13 games. 
  • Louisville vs. Florida State picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Louisville vs. Florida State live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Florida State can cover

Even with Travis out last week and Florida expecting a more run-focused approach from Florida State, running back Trey Benson still averaged 5.0 yards per carry. The junior rushed for 95 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries, his largest workload of the season, and Benson proved he could withstand and thrive with the additional work. Louisville surrendered 5.4 yards per carry to Kentucky's top running back Ray Davis and 7.4 yards per carry to Miami's RB1 Mark Fletcher Jr. over the last two weeks as Benson and the Seminoles look to expose that recent trend.

Florida State has been the dominant ACC team all season and a road victory with a backup last week showed the team as a whole still has enough talent to knock out tough opponents without Travis. FSU defeated Louisville, 35-31, last season and has won three of the last five matchups against the schools. Florida State has the top-scoring defense in the conference, allowing 16.8 points per game and the second-lowest in conference games (17.0), as the top-to-bottom talent of Florida State may be too much for Louisville as the Seminoles have one final chance to add to their CFP resume. See which team to pick at SportsLine

Why Louisville can cover

Florida State is a completely different team without its star quarterback, and the lack of firepower showed against Florida last week. Rodemaker completed just 12 of 25 passes for 134 yards in a game where he took a hard hit that has left him questionable due to an unspecified injury. Glenn, a freshman, has only thrown four passes this season, which came in garbage time two weeks ago.

The Seminoles' lack of firepower is going to be a major issue against a Louisville offense that has scored at least 30 points in four straight games. Senior quarterback Jack Plummer has thrown for 2,952 yards and 21 touchdowns, while junior running back Jawhar Jordan has rushed for 1,076 yards and 13 scores. The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings between these teams. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make ACC Championship picks

Kaylor has analyzed this matchup from every angle and he's leaning Over on the point total. He has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Florida State vs. Louisville on Saturday, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the expert who has covered college football for over a decade and is 73-28-2 on his best bets in 2023, and find out.