The emphasis in dynasty leagues tends to be on prospects, but it should actually be on winning, right? That's what makes a dynasty, after all. It's not a team that goes all-in for one big win after years of losing, but one that sustains success year after year after year.

More than prospects (which, technically speaking, aren't winning anyone anything), the key to sustaining success is a young core. Now, maybe that young core begins with prospects, but fashioning a young core from scratch is a higher-risk, lower-fulfillment approach. Sometimes it's made necessary by untenable circumstances, but ideally, prospects exist more to supplement and sustain an existing core.

What I'm saying is you shouldn't underestimate the value of proven-ness when putting together your dynasty league team. True, other factors like keeper cost may come into play, but all things being equal, a minor-leaguer isn't inherently more valuable than a major-leaguer, especially a young one who himself has upside.

But I acknowledge it can be tricky weighing present needs against future hopes and certainty against upside, and it's never one-size-fits-all. Still, I've attempted to simplify it, at least for the top 150, by considering these three factors:

  1. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2020
  2. Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
  3. Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his immediate and long-term value

Each factor is measured on a 1-to-5 score, with five being the best, and a player's ranking is primarily determined by adding the scores. Ties typically go to the younger player, but personal preference plays a role as well. The distinctions become less evident further down the list, so at some point subjectivity has to reign.

Top 150 for dynasty leagues
RankPlayerAge (on 7/1)PresentFutureConfidence
1 22 5 5 5
2 21 5 5 5
3 24 5 5 5
4
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Mike Trout LAA CF
28 5 5 5
5 28 5 5 5
6 27 5 5 5
7 26 5 5 5
8 26 5 5 5
9 21 5 5 4
10 23 5 5 4
11 29 5 4 5
12 27 5 5 4
13 27 5 5 4
14 25 5 5 4
15 23 4 5 4
16 27 5 5 3
17 29 5 4 4
18 25 5 5 3
19
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Jack Flaherty STL SP
24 4 5 4
20 23 4 5 4
21 32 5 3 5
22 30 5 3 5
23 30 5 3 4
24 21 3 5 4
25 25 4 4 4
26 23 4 4 4
27 23 4 5 3
28 22 4 5 3
29 27 4 4 4
30 26 4 5 3
31
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Mike Clevinger CLE SP
29 5 3 4
32 28 4 5 3
33 27 4 4 4
34 25 4 5 3
35 27 4 5 3
36 27 4 5 3
37 25 4 5 3
38 24 4 5 3
39 27 4 5 3
40 19 1 5 5
41 25 3 5 3
42
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Eloy Jimenez CHW LF
23 3 5 3
43
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Luis Robert CHW CF
22 3 5 3
44 30 4 3 4
45
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Stephen Strasburg WAS SP
31 4 3 4
46
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George Springer HOU CF
30 4 3 4
47 30 4 3 4
48 28 4 4 3
49 26 4 4 3
50 26 4 5 2
51 29 4 3 4
52 27 4 4 3
53 30 4 3 4
54 27 4 4 3
55 27 4 4 3
56 26 4 4 3
57 27 4 4 3
58 24 4 5 2
59 22 3 5 3
60 26 4 4 3
61
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Mike Soroka ATL SP
22 4 4 3
62 26 4 4 3
63 25 3 5 3
64 32 5 2 4
65 28 4 4 3
66 28 4 4 3
67 21 1 5 4
68
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Corey Seager LAD SS
26 3 4 3
69 22 3 5 2
70 21 1 5 4
71 23 3 4 3
72
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Zac Gallen ARI SP
24 3 4 3
73 23 2 5 3
74
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Justin Verlander HOU SP
37 5 1 4
75 35 5 1 4
76 28 4 4 2
77 28 4 4 2
78 23 3 4 3
79 27 4 4 2
80 27 4 4 2
81 33 5 2 3
82 29 4 3 3
83 28 4 4 2
84 26 4 4 2
85 32 4 2 4
86
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Max Kepler MIN RF
27 4 4 2
87 28 3 3 4
88 27 3 4 3
89 24 3 4 2
90 29 4 3 2
91 31 4 3 2
92 25 3 4 2
93 21 2 5 2
94 20 1 5 3
95 23 2 5 2
96
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Luis Severino NYY SP
26 1 5 3
97 29 3 4 2
98 30 4 3 2
99
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James Paxton NYY SP
31 4 3 2
100 31 4 2 3
101 25 3 4 2
102 27 4 4 1
103 26 3 4 2
104
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Lance McCullers HOU SP
26 3 4 2
105 23 1 5 3
106 22 1 5 3
107
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Michael Conforto NYM RF
27 3 3 3
108
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David Dahl COL CF
26 3 4 2
109 25 3 4 2
110 26 3 3 3
111 23 1 5 3
112 22 1 5 3
113
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Michael Kopech CHW SP
24 2 5 2
114 36 4 1 4
115 36 4 1 4
116 33 4 2 3
117 27 3 3 3
118 22 2 4 3
119 19 1 5 3
120 31 4 2 3
121
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Mike Moustakas CIN 3B
31 3 2 4
122 29 4 3 2
123
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Ramon Laureano OAK CF
25 3 4 2
124 25 3 4 2
125 30 3 3 3
126 29 3 4 2
127
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Marcell Ozuna STL LF
29 3 3 3
128 30 4 3 2
129 27 3 3 3
130
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Carlos Martinez STL RP
28 3 4 2
131 33 4 2 3
132 30 3 3 3
133
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J.D. Davis NYM LF
27 3 4 2
134
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Franmil Reyes CLE RF
25 3 4 2
135 25 3 3 3
136 26 3 4 2
137
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Nick Senzel CIN CF
25 3 4 2
138 24 3 4 2
139 25 3 4 2
140 31 4 2 3
141
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Noah Syndergaard NYM SP
27 1 4 3
142
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Chris Sale BOS SP
31 1 4 3
143 22 1 4 3
144 22 1 5 2
145 23 1 5 2
146 23 1 4 3
147 24 2 4 2
148 25 2 5 1
149 24 2 4 2
150
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Dustin May LAD RP
22 2 4 2