Draft prep season for Fantasy Football is supposed to be when optimism reigns. Every player's ceiling is worth talking about because ultimately, it's the best-case scenario that's going to help you win your league. And we spend plenty of time talking about the best-case scenarios. By now, you know how things could go right for the top players in drafts -- more often than not, you can just point to 2020 to see what it looks like! 

But things don't always work out that way. Sometimes, players live up to or even surpass expectations, but it's just as likely that any given player might underperform too. Last season, first-rounders like Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Michael Thomas, Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs all disappointed us, and not all because of injuries. That's not as much fun to talk about, but it's still important to have an idea in your head of how things can go wrong. 

Because it's not the same for everyone. I mean, sure, everyone could just get hurt and wreck their season, but that's not the point of this exercise. The point of this exercise is to look at the non-injury ways a player's season could get derailed. From some limitation in their own game to some overlooked flaw in their situation, the point of this two-part series -- players ranked 13-24 in ADP are here -- is to try to figure out what the floor is for these projected top picks.

1. Christian McCaffrey

How things could go wrong: Sam Darnold craters the offense

We've seen McCaffrey put up historic numbers with the likes of Will Grier and Kyle Allen, so there really isn't much to be concerned about. However, that doesn't necessarily guarantee that he will remain that good with Darnold, who has really struggled through the first three seasons of his career. The Panthers have more competition for targets than they've ever had with McCaffrey with Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall alongside D.J. Moore, which could cap his receiving ceiling. 

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for McCaffrey? Pretty unlikely -- he averaged 30 points per game in his three games in this offense last season. Sure, Darnold could be so bad that it sinks everyone else, but McCaffrey has already thrived in that kind of scenario. As long as he gets his usual stream of targets, there's a narrower path to disappointment for him than any player in Fantasy. He's got both the highest floor and highest ceiling of any pick. 

2. Dalvin Cook

How things could go wrong: The workload finally catches up to him

And it's not just because of injury risk, though that certainly exists here more than with most backs, I would say. However, there's also the risk that, after 705 touches over the last two seasons, including 356 in just 14 games in 2020, he just might not be as effective as he has been recently It's asking an awful lot of any back to hold up to this kind of workload week in and week out. 

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Cook? I think it's pretty unlikely. Injury risk exists for every back, and we're pretty bad at predicting who might actually get hurt at any given time. Cook isn't my RB2, but he's no worse than RB3. 

3. Alvin Kamara

How things could go wrong: Taysom Hill wins the QB battles

That's oversimplifying things just a bit. Hill could win the QB battle and Kamara might see enough of an uptick in rushing volume and efficiency to make up for whatever he would certainly lose in the passing game. Conversely, Jameis Winston could struggle with turnovers -- not exactly a stretch -- while overlooking Kamara enough in the short passing game to hurt his value. But, all things considered, Winston is clearly the best QB of the two for Kamara's value given the likelihood of increased passing volume and a better offense overall. Kamara had just a 15.7% target share with Hill in 2020, compared to 21.8% with Drew Brees. 

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Kamara? Well, it sure looked like Winston locked up the QB1 spot with his showing Monday, and Kamara is my No. 2 RB, so not very likely!

4. Derrick Henry

How things could go wrong: The workload finally catches up to him

Everything I said about Cook applies to Henry to an even greater degree. He's been a model of health and consistency, missing just two games in his career despite a huge workload and punishing, physical rushing style. But he's also up to over 1,400 career touches, including a truly incredible 827 over the last two seasons. How long can he keep that up? 

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Henry? On the one hand, having been able to handle this workload so far is a good sign that he's up for the challenge. On the other hand, Henry's margin for error as a truly elite Fantasy running back is relatively slim -- he had the fifth-most rushing yards ever, the fourth-most rushing touchdowns of the last decade, and finished just fifth among all RB/WR/TE in PPR scoring per game in 2020. It's unlikely he'll ever have a better season than that, and he's being drafted at his ceiling. I think Henry's got a high floor thanks to his workload, but he's very dependent on being among the league leaders in touches, which means any injury could be especially harmful. 

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5. Ezekiel Elliott

How things could go wrong: The offensive line falls apart again

The thing about running backs is, no matter how talented they are, they are heavily dependent on their situations to produce for Fantasy. And last season, Elliott's situation went from very good to very bad very quickly with Dak Prescott hurt along with four of five starting offensive linemen for long stretches of the season. A strength turned into a weakness, and if that happens again, Elliott is going to struggle to produce like an RB1. 

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Elliott? Well, there have been reports out of Cowboys camp that the backup offensive line has been an issue again, so we certainly can't write it off. The Cowboys are a very top-heavy roster and as we saw last season, things get shaky real quick if the injury bug hits. That being said, it's unlikely things go as bad as they did last year for the Cowboys line, right? 

6. Davante Adams

How things could go wrong: Aaron Rodgers regresses

Adams hasn't finished worse than WR5 in points per game over the past three seasons, but his worst finish did come in 2019, which coincided with one of Rodgers' worse seasons ever. Adams still averaged 17.7 points per game, a huge number, but still eight points short of his 2020 average. Rodgers threw for 48 touchdowns, but if he had hit his career norm TD%, it would have been 33. It's not hard to see how Rodgers could take a step back. 

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Adams? I think Rodgers will regress, but I also think he's going to continue to be one of the very best quarterbacks in the league and Adams is going to continue to see a huge share of his targets, so it doesn't really seem like a big risk to me. Adams is at or near his peak and should be the consensus No. 1 WR. 

7. Travis Kelce

How things could go wrong: Age catches up to him

It may not seem like it because he's coming off his best season ever, but Kelce will be 32 come Week 5. He's shown no signs of slowing down whatsoever, but age can often catch up to players quick, and for every Tony Gonzalez there's a Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates who can't sustain the high-level production deep into their 30s.

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Kelce? I think he's worth drafting as early as the No. 4 overall pick so I'm not betting on it. There's risk with Kelce's age, sure, but that doesn't seem to be a bigger concern in my eyes than Elliott's 2020, or Henry's workload, or anything else. He's defied the odds by being this good at this age with no signs of decline, so I'll keep betting on him. 

8. Austin Ekeler

How things could go wrong: He just can't find the end zone again

Ekeler seems like about as good a bet as you can make for a huge receiving workload at RB, and I have him ahead of even McCaffrey in projected targets. However, Ekeler scored just three times in nine full games in 2020 and has never scored more than three rushing touchdowns in a season. He'll need to rely on scoring through the air unless that changes, and that's a finicky thing to rely on. 

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Ekeler? He's my RB4, so I don't think it's very likely, especially because I think he'll get so many touches that it won't matter all that much -- I have him projected for 10 touchdowns, fewer than any other top-12 RB. 

9. Jonathan Taylor

How things could go wrong: Carson Wentz is a disaster

Wentz and Quenton Nelson are both expected to be healthy for Week 1, which is great news for Taylor. But there's still very much an open question about how helpful Wentz can actually be at this point in his career -- if he plays like he did last season, that's a huge downgrade for the Colts offense as a whole, even from the relatively pedestrian Phillip Rivers. Taylor is going to have the volume to put up big numbers, but if he's struggling to find the end zone and not getting much work in the passing game … well, you know why everyone is always so frustrated with Joe Mixon? How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Taylor? I think there's a decent chance. I'm lower on Taylor than the consensus in part because of that and in part because I don't trust his role in the passing game. I could see this being a very vanilla offense, and while Taylor will almost certainly be a top-12(-ish) RB no matter what, the upside could be really capped. 

10. Tyreek Hill

How things could go wrong: Bad touchdown luck

In all honesty, it's really hard to come up with a way for things to go wrong for Hill that don't include injuries. But, because he's such a relatively low catch guy for an elite receiver, Hill doesn't have that to fall back on in case of a random string of touchdown-less games. 

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Hill? The flip side of that is, his low catch totals stem from his extreme efficiency and big play abilities, both of which make him more likely than your average player to score on any given touch. Which is to say, it's hard to see things going wrong for Hill in this offense. 

11. Aaron Jones

How things could go wrong: A.J. Dillon is irrepressible 

There's little reason left to doubt Jones at this point, but it's fair to point out that Dillon sure seems to be a much more talented complementary piece than Jamaal Williams ever was. If Dillon turns into the kind of playmaker the Packers surely think he can be, what does that mean for Jones? Jones should have the passing downs locked up no matter what, but if Dillon starts to encroach on his goal-line role especially, it could make things very difficult for Jones. 

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Jones? I think it's pretty unlikely that Jones falls out of RB1 contention because of Dillon, but he could push him further from the elite tier. I'll bet on Jones to remain the lead back -- he's my RB7 -- but Dillon is an excellent mid-round target because there's a non-zero chance this moves closer to being a 50-50 split on the ground. Dillon could be that good. 

12. Saquon Barkley

How things could go wrong: He just never gets fully healthy

Barkley is improving and expected to be fully cleared by Week 1, but the Giants have made it very clear they will be careful with him. What if he pulls up short in practice in two weeks? Will he have a full role in Week 1? It seems unlikely. Injury risk exists for everyone, but Barkley could be more at risk of missing time with small, nagging things if the Giants play it as cautiously as they have so far. 

How likely do I think things are to go wrong for Barkley? More likely than for most of the top tier players. I've got Barkley ranked as my RB7 despite that risk, because the upside is so high. However, it's also worth noting that in the 12 games Barkley has played with Daniel Jones in his career, he's been on pace for 88 targets, compared to 115 in the 19 other games. So the upside might not be as high as we hope. 

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.