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Just when you thought the Jets offense couldn't get any more inept:

I know the easy response to this is that nothing that the Jets do matters now. They're going to be the worst team in the NFL, they have an awful quarterback situation and their receiving corps may be worse than the quarterbacks now. I get it. 

But I can't help myself.

The Jets are going to throw the ball upwards of 550 times this season. Maybe 120 of those targets go to running backs. That's 430 targets and absolutely no one that is being drafted in a standard league. Someone on this team is going to outperform their ADP (or lack thereof). Might as well take a crack at trying to solve the riddle that is the Jets passing game.

Robby Anderson is the incumbent and the current odds on favorite to lead the team in receiving. In the second half of 2016 he averaged seven targets and 54 yards a game. As the team is presently constructed, I would expect an increase in both numbers. Someone on this team is going to see 120+ targets, and Anderson is currently the most likely.

ArDarius Stewart was a deep sleeper favorite of mine early in the summer but he has struggled with injuries in camp. He seems to be getting healthy and has the most upside in the receiving corps. He was a third-round selection in April's draft and has the ability to make things happen after the catch. If anyone makes a leap into true Fantasy relevance this season I would expect it to be Stewart, but he's just as likely to be irrelevant in Fantasy.

Here are my updated expectations for the Jets: 

*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.

New York Jets
Player Expected FP Position Rank Expected PPR FP Position Rank
132.9 #24 180.9 #18
132.4 #26 165.4 #24
105.9 #51 168.9 #50
82 #74 137 #69

Breaking down the touches

We don't view the Jets as a gunslinging team, but in the Todd Bowles era they've averaged 577 pass attempts and just 433 rush attempts. That's at least partially influenced by game script, and I wouldn't expect the game script to be any more run-friendly in 2017. Their running backs have seen a fair share of targets (128 per year), but they have largely ignored the tight ends. I don't expect Austin Seferian-Jenkins or fiffh-round pick Jordan Leggett will change that this season. 

While there will certainly be some changes to the offensive philosophy with John Morton taking over as offensive coordinator, he's given us no indication what those changes might look like. I'm expecting around 550 pass attempts again in 2017, with the Jets running the ball somewhere in the neighborhood of 425 times. Yes, I'm sure they'd like to run it more often than that, but the scoreboard will make that difficult most weeks.

Here's the touch breakdown I expect:

Jets Touches
Matt Forte 43% 184 9% 49 33 5
Bilal Powell 37% 156 12% 65 48 4
Robby Anderson 0 0 22% 121 63 4
Ardarius Stewart 0 0 18% 100 55 3
Charone Peake 0 0 14% 75 38 2
Austin Seferian-Jenkins 0 0 13% 70 40 3

Of note:

  • I don't expect much from the tight end position because the Jets don't have certainty, talent, or any type of recent history of using the position. 
  • There are 80 rush attempts and about 70 targets unaccounted for. I don't expect any one player to get a large share of these touches.

The Leftovers

This is the spot where we generally talk about back ups who could be Fantasy relevant. Unfortunately that line of thinking applies to most of the Jets starters.

Rookie running back Elijah McGuire has gotten positive reviews so far, and with Matt Forte's age it isn't too far of a stretch to think he could be a waiver wire option at some point if one or both of the Jets running backs get hurt. It's stretch to say you should draft one of the Jets starting pass catchers, so you definitely shouldn't be drafting their backups.