We've reached the Fantasy playoffs in virtually all leagues, otherwise known as the time of year where lineup decisions can feel debilitating. The fear of making a fatal mistake in the playoffs understandable, but we're going to have to get over it. Especially when it comes to running back in Week 16.
As of Tuesday afternoon, I have 31 running backs projected to score at least 12 PPR Fantasy points. But I only have 12 running backs projected to score more than 15 PPR Fantasy points, and four of them are Ezekiel Elliott, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Ty Chandler. In other words, most people in the playoffs are going to have difficult decisions to make at running back.
What I suggest this week is sticking with your process. For some people that means that they would never sit an early-round pick like Tony Pollard or Derrick Henry for a waiver wire add like Chandler. For others that may mean they could never start a guy like Robinson or Hall who just faceplanted over a guy like James Conner who just had a great game. For me, that means I'll trust where my projections land at kickoff. There is a saying that you should trust the guys who got you here. I modify that only slightly; trust the process that got you here.
Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are both flexes, but it's a terrible matchup.
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Numbers to know
69% -- Jaylen Warren played a season-high 69% of the snaps in Week 15. Hopefully that wasn't entirely about the game script.
11.2% -- A league-low 11.2% of James Cook's rushes have gone for zero or negative yards. He's a must-start running back with the increased volume.
24.3 -- Kyren Williams is averaging 24.3 rush attempts per game in three December starts this season. Only Christian McCaffrey projects for more than Fantasy points in Week 16.
3.8 -- Derrick Henry's 3.8 yards per carry is the lowest of his career and his 63.1 rushing yards per game is his lowest since 2017. He is not a must-start running back this week.
87 -- Chuba Hubbard has at least 87 rushing yards in three straight games.
In his first game without Josh Jacobs, White saw 20 touches and produced 85 yards and 17.5 PPR Fantasy points. If Jacobs remains out in Week 16, White would be a high-end flex with top-20 upside at running back.
McKinnon has scored a touchdown in every December game he's played with the Chiefs. He's their red zone weapon this time of year and he's a touchdown-dependent flex even if Isiah Pacheco returns.
Rodriguez handled the majority of the work for Washington in the second half of Week 15 and could be their lead back if Brian Robinson remains out this week. The Jets have allowed seven touchdowns to running backs in their last five games.
This is a strange week at running back. My top four projected running backs are not on the main slate. Robinson has a discounted price after last week's stinker but I'm expecting a bounce back. The Colts have given up the fourth-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs and Robinson is a home favorite in the dome on a fast track.
I'm going right back to Hall after last week's very strange letdown. He had 26 targets in his last three games before Week 15 and I expect that role to return. An opposing running back has scored at least one touchdown in eight straight games against the Commanders.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 16 Fantasy Footballprojections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 16. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
