There will be many difficult decisions to be made in Week 16. It is the Fantasy Football semifinals in most leagues and there is a certain finality to every decision. There's no shortage of things to stress over as a Fantasy manager. Whether or not you start Rashee Rice shouldn't be one of them. While Rice is just WR29 on the season, that's mostly due to a slow start, and his hot start has pushed him into must-start, borderline top-12 territory.
The Chiefs' star rookie has four straight games with at least nine targets and he's scored at least 14 PPR Fantasy points in all of those games. Since Week 12, only Deebo Samuel and CeeDee Lamb have scored more PPR Fantasy points that Rice.
On paper, the matchup doesn't look great, because the Raiders have been above average in terms of limiting the Fantasy production of wide receivers. But this hot stretch started against the Raiders, when Rice scored 24.7 PPR Fantasy points against them in Week 12. They are playing a style of defense that limits big plays but allows throws underneath which fits Rice and his 4.3 ADOT perfectly. While the Raiders have surrendered the 11th-fewest passing yards this season, they've given up the fourth-most yards after the catch.
If Rice is on your roster, he's in your starting lineup. You have plenty of other things to stress about.
Tee Higgins is a No. 2 receiver and Tyler Boyd is a fine flex.
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Numbers to Know
69.9% -- Nearly 70% of Rashee Rice's receiving yards have come after the catch, that's tops amongst wide receivers with at least 50 targets.
11.4 -- Deebo Samuel is on pace to become just the fourth player since 1992 to average more than 11 yards per target with at least 60 targets in multiple seasons. The other three are Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, and DeSean Jackson.
18 -- Puka Nacua needs 18 more catches to set the rookie record for most catches in a season.
152.67 -- After missing last week's game, Tyreek Hill now needs to average almost 153 yards per game in his final three to reach his stated goal of 2,000 receiving yards this season.
15.88 -- Drake London is averaging 15.88 PPR FPPG at home this season and just 7.37 on the road.
24.2 -- Noah Brown has three games this season with at least 24.2 PPR Fantasy points. He also has zero points in two of his last three. He's the Gabe Davis of the South.
Samuel was the top waiver wire add at wide receiver last week as well, but he still sits at just 57% rostered. He has three straight games with double-digit Fantasy points and he's topped 19 in two of those games. The matchup isn't great but it's easier for him than it is for Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.
Douglas' first game back was a disappointment but he still has nine targets in two of his last three games and seven targets in four of his last five games. I'm hoping for a bounce back in Week 16.
If Christian Watson and Jayden Reed remain out then Wicks might just be the best option available. He should certainly be started in more leagues than he is currently rostered in. His seven targets in Week 15 were a career high and part of a trend. His snap share has increased for three weeks in a row.
The choice between Lamb and Tyreek Hill will not be an easy one. The tiebreaker for me is that Lamb is $900 cheaper and Hill may still not be 100% by the time the Cowboys and Dolphins kick off. Last week was the first time since Week 9 that Lamb failed to reach the end zone and the second time since Week 5 that he didn't score at least 17 PPR Fantasy points.
We expect Hill to return this week, which should drive people off of Waddle. But there is at least a chance that Hill won't be 100% and Waddle will still be Tua Tagovailoa's top target. Waddle has been the quintessential DFS tournament play as of late with three of seven games over 19 PPR Fantasy points, topping 26 twice.
