2018 Genesis Open odds and picks: Projected Tiger Woods finish from proven computer model

The PGA Tour is heading to Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California, this week for the 2018 Genesis Open. Dustin Johnson is the Vegas favorite at 9/2, followed by Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy at 12/1 and Justin Thomas at 15/1.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over Jon Rahm's victory at the CareerBuilder Challenge this season and had two players in its projected top five finish tied for second at last week's Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Now that the field for the Genesis Open 2018 is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

Tiger Woods (40/1), the 14-time major champion, will make his second start of the season this week. The 2018 Genesis Open will be Woods' first tournament at Riviera Country Club since 2006. Woods has never won a PGA Tour event at the historic California venue and SportsLine says he will struggle mightily again. SportsLine is projecting him to finish outside the top 50.

One huge surprise the model is calling for: Charley Hoffman, an 80/1 longshot, makes a serious run at the title. He's a target for anybody looking for a huge payday.

Hoffman withdrew during the third round of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, only his second mid-tourney withdrawal in 342 career events. However, he has played well this season with a pair of top-10 finishes at the Hero World Challenge and QBE Shootout -- both unofficial PGA Tour events.

Hoffman ranks sixth on the PGA Tour at 72 holes per eagle, which means plenty of opportunities to move up the Genesis Open leaderboard. He's 23rd in the Official World Golf Rankings and has 48 career top-10 finishes. Back him at the Genesis Open 2018 with confidence.

Another curveball: Bubba Watson (50/1), a two-time winner of the Genesis Open, doesn't even sniff the top 40. He's somebody to steer clear of this week.

Watson has not finished better than 35th in an official PGA Tour event this season. His 54.34 driving accuracy percentage ranks just 181st on the PGA Tour, and he's also outside the top 100 in holes per eagle (163rd), birdie average (143rd), and sand save percentage (177th). 

Watson is No. 117 in the Official World Golf Rankings; his 43 FedEx Cup season points ranks 166th.

Also, two additional players with odds longer than 30/1 are positioning themselves to make a serious run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 Genesis Open this year? And what long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that predicted Jon Rahm's victory at the CareerBuilder Challenge, and find out.

Dustin Johnson 9/2
Jordan Spieth 12/1
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Justin Thomas 15/1
Paul Casey 25/1
Phil Mickelson 25/1
Tommy Fleetwood 30/1
Marc Leishman 30/1
Chez Reavie 33/1
Daniel Berger 40/1
Tiger Woods 40/1
Thomas Pieters 40/1
Branden Grace 40/1
Ollie Schniederjans 40/1
Alex Noren 40/1
Matt Kuchar 40/1
Kevin Chappell 40/1

Show Comments Hide Comments
Our Latest Stories