In just a few short days, the 2017 MLB regular season will finally begin. Spring training was extra long this season because of the World Baseball Classic, and I think we’re all excited to see some meaningful baseball again. I know I am.
As is the case every season, several players are poised to reach major milestones this summer. Both personal milestones and historic milestones that will place them among baseball’s all-time greats. Here are the most notable upcoming milestones for the 2017 season.
Adrian Beltre: 3,000 hits and 600 doubles
Barring injury, baseball will see a player join the 3,000-hit club for the third consecutive season in 2017. Alex Rodriguez joined the club in 2015, then Ichiro Suzuki did it in 2016. Beltre, who will turn 38 shortly after Opening Day, is only 58 hits away from 3,000, so it’s a question of “when” he’ll get his 3,000th hit, not “if.”
I should note Beltre is currently dealing with a nagging calf injury, and there’s been some talk he may have to start the season with a brief disabled list stint. (Remember, it’s a 10-day DL now, not a 15-day DL.) As long as the calf injury doesn’t linger, I’d start looking for Rangers tickets in late May and early June. That’s when Beltre figures to get hit No. 3,000. He’ll be the 31st player in history to reach the milestone.
Furthermore, Beltre is only nine doubles away from 600 for his career. He’d be only the 17th player in history to reach 600 career doubles. It’s not out of the question he could jump into the top 10 all-time in doubles this season too. He needs 42 two-baggers to pass David Ortiz for 10th place all-time.
A few years ago, the big debate was whether Beltre is a Hall of Famer, though that’s a slam dunk now. He’s going in, likely on the first ballot. The better question now is whether Beltre is the best third baseman in history. Here is the all-time WAR leaderboard among third baseman:
- Mike Schmidt -- 106.5
- Eddie Mathews -- 96.4
- Wade Boggs -- 91.1
- Adrian Beltre -- 90.2
- George Brett -- 88.4
- Chipper Jones -- 85.0
Beltre hasn’t had a sub-5.5 WAR season since 2009, and while he’s at the age where you’d expect his performance to slip, he had a very good chance to reach 100 WAR when it’s all said and done. Beltre is third all-time among third basemen in hits, second in doubles, and fourth in home runs (445). I’m not saying he’s the best third baseman of all-time. I’m just saying he has to be in the conversation at this point. What an incredible player.
Albert Pujols: 600 home runs
While Beltre continues to play at a high level on both sides of the ball. Pujols is no longer the hitter he was in his prime, mostly because foot and ankle injuries continue to hamper him. Pujols, now 37, set new career lows in OPS (.780) and OPS+ (114) in 2016. The Angels hope he rebounds in 2017.
That said, Pujols is a no-doubt first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the greatest right-handed hitters in baseball history. He’ll enter the 2017 season only nine home runs short of 600, and this is a guy who has only once failed to hit at least 28 home runs in his 16 big league seasons. (He hit 17 during his injury shortened 2013 season.)
Here is the all-time home run leaderboard:
- Barry Bonds -- 762
- Hank Aaron -- 755
- Babe Ruth -- 714
- Alex Rodriguez -- 696
- Willie Mays -- 660
- Ken Griffey Jr. -- 630
- Jim Thome -- 612
- Sammy Sosa -- 609
- Albert Pujols -- 591
- Frank Robinson -- 583
Pujols has averaged 33 home runs per season over the last three years, so it’s very possible he’ll jump Sosa and Thome to move into seventh place on the all-time list in 2017. It’s not completely out of the question he’ll jump Griffey too. Pujols did sock 40 home runs as recently as 2015.
It’s also worth noting Pujols is sitting on 2,825 career hits, so 3,000 is within reach. He has not recorded 175-plus hits in a season since way back in 2010, however, so he’ll have to stay healthy and turn back the clock to get there in 2017. Possible? Yes. Unlikely? Also yes. Early 2018 is more realistic for his 3,000th career hit.
And finally, Pujols is also 183 RBI short of joining Aaron, Ruth, and A-Rod as the only members of the 2,000-RBI club. That milestone will come in the middle of 2018 at the earliest.
Robinson Cano: 500 doubles and 300 home runs
Cano really doesn’t get enough credit for being one of the most durable players of his generation, especially considering his position. Second basemen take a beating because they have to make the double play pivot blind. Cano has played no fewer than 156 games in a season since 2006. He’s played 1,594 of 1,620 possible games over the last 10 years, or 98.4 percent. That is truly remarkable.
Given his durability and greatness, and should be no surprise then Cano is closing in on 500 career doubles and 300 career home runs. He’s only 21 doubles away from 500. The last time Cano had fewer than 21 doubles in a single-season? 2001, when he had 14 doubles in 59 games as an 18-year-old in rookie ball. Yeah. Cano will get to 500 doubles this season, and when he does, he’ll be only the seventh second baseman to reach the milestone.
Here is all-time doubles list among second basemen:
- Craig Biggio -- 668
- Charlie Gehringer -- 574
- Jeff Kent -- 560
- Rogers Hornsby -- 541
- Nap Lajoie -- 510
- Roberto Alomar -- 504
- Billy Herman -- 486
- Robinson Cano -- 479
Cano is also 22 home runs shy of 300 for his career, and when he gets there, he’ll join Kent (377) and Hornsby (301) as the only second basemen in the 300-homer club. He set a career high with 39 home runs in 2016. Hitting the 22 he needs to get to 300 in 2017 is a good bet.
Unlike Beltre and Pujols, who would be voted into the Hall of Fame if they retired today, I think Cano still has some work to do before punching his ticket to Cooperstown. He’s a few years away from 3,000 hits (he has 2,210 at the moment) but he could very well get to 3,000 hits, 600 doubles, and 400 home runs when it’s all said and done. Cano has to hang around a few more years to compile -- his contract with the Mariners runs through 2023, so that won’t be a problem -- but otherwise he’s already built a strong Hall of Fame foundation.
Mike Trout: 200 home runs
Playing in the big leagues long enough to hit 200 home runs is an incredible accomplishment and something most players won’t get a chance to do. But, in the grand scheme of things, hitting 200 home runs isn’t that big a deal. A total of 337 players have hit 200-plus homers, and this season Brandon Phillips (197 HR), Adam Lind (186 HR), J.J. Hardy (184 HR), Mark Trumbo (178 HR), and Andrew McCutchen (175 HR) could all join the 200-homer club.
So too could Angels wunderkind Mike Trout, who will enter the season with 168 career home runs. My abacus tells me he is 32 dingers away from 200. What separates Trout from everyone else is his age. He’ll be 25 years and 239 days old when the Angels play their first game of the regular season Monday.
Here are the youngest players to reach 200 home runs:
- Mel Ott -- 25 years and 144 days
- Eddie Mathews -- 25 years and 242 days
- Albert Pujols -- 25 years and 257 days
- Jimmie Foxx -- 25 years and 266 days
- Mickey Mantle -- 25 years and 279 days
- Alex Rodriguez -- 25 years and 289 days
- Frank Thomas -- 25 years and 360 days
- Andruw Jones -- 26 years and 61 days
- Miguel Cabrera -- 26 years and 127 days
- Hank Aaron -- 26 years and 149 days
Trout will turn 26 on August 7th, the day the Angels play their 113th game of the season. Can Trout hit 32 homers within the first 112 games of the season to become only the eighth player in history to hit 200 home runs before his 26th birthday? It’ll be tough, but it’s definitely doable. Trout hit his 32nd homer in the team’s 102nd game in 2015, after all.
This season Trout, who is sitting on 48.5 WAR for his career, will pass Chuck Finley for the all-time franchise lead. Finley is at 52.2 WAR. Trout will also become only the third player in history to reach 50 WAR before his 26th birthday, joining Ty Cobb (55.8) and Mickey Mantle (52.2).
The 2017 season figures to be light on pitching milestones. Clayton Kershaw, James Shields, Max Scherzer, and Jon Lester should all strike out their 2,000th batter at some point this summer, and both Bartolo Colon (17 wins shy of 250) and Francisco Rodriguez (20 saves away from 450) could reach some nice round number milestones. That’s about it. Baseball is a long way away from seeing another 300-game winner (Colon is the active wins leader) while the next 3,000-strikeout pitcher is at least one season away (CC Sabathia is the active leader with 2,726).
On the team level, David Wright needs 11 home runs to pass Darryl Strawberry as the Mets’ all-time home run king, though his health is a major question right now. He’s coming back from neck surgery and is currently dealing with a shoulder issue. Also, Giancarlo Stanton will pass Mike Lowell as the Marlins’ all-time RBI leader when he drives in his 39th run of the season. He is already the franchise’s all-time home run leader. And, as I mentioned earlier, Trout will soon take over as the all-time WAR leader for the Angels.
