Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, Kevin Harvick and Austin Cindric were all eliminated from the 2022 NASCAR playoffs as the field was trimmed from 16 drivers to 12 after last Saturday's race in Bristol. Now the remaining 12 postseason drivers will have three races before the next cut to eight, beginning with the 2022 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Kyle Larson is the defending champion in this race and he also won the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race on the 1.5-mile oval in Fort Worth and the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion would love another win to stay in the race for back-to-back titles.
Larson is listed at 13-2 in the latest 2022 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds from Caesars Sportsbook while Denny Hamlin is the 11-2 favorite. There are a total of eight drivers in the NASCAR at Texas field with odds of 10-1 or lower and the stakes will be quite high when the green flag drops. Before scouring the 2022 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Texas predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Texas picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
In the 2021 season, McClure's model nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season.
So far in 2022, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 on his win in St. Louis. In early August, it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Texas race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 leaderboard.
Top 2022 NASCAR at Texas predictions
For the 2022 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500, the model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's a 20-1 longshot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Texas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Despite being eliminated from the postseason last week, Harvick is a three-time winner at Texas Motor Speedway and he's already proven this season that you can never count him out.
After going 65 races without a win, the 2014 NASCAR Cup Series champion broke through with his 59th career Cup win at Michigan and then came back the next week to capture win No. 60. Harvick had a deep hole to dig himself out of to qualify for the Round of 12 in the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs but he still is coming off a solid run last week at Bristol with a 10th-place finish. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.
And a massive shocker: Kyle Busch, one of the Vegas favorites at 15-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 starting lineup. Busch ran in the top five of the 2022 NASCAR standings for most of the season but faltered enormously late in the season.
The two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion finished outside the top 10 in 12 of his last 14 starts and didn't have a single finish higher than ninth during that span. Busch finished 26th or worse in each of the first three postseason races of the year, leaving him eliminated after the first round of the NASCAR playoffs for the first time since 2012. Even as a four-time winner at Texas, there's simply not a lot of reason to trust Busch as one of the race favorites given his current form. See which other favorites to avoid here.
How to make 2022 NASCAR Texas picks
The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Texas odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 2022? And which longshots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest NASCAR at Texas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 NASCAR Texas leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season.
2022 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds, field
See full NASCAR Texas picks, best bets, and predictions here
Denny Hamlin 11-2
Kyle Larson 13-2
Kyle Busch 15-2
Christopher Bell 8-1
Chase Elliott 9-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
Tyler Reddick 12-1
William Byron 12-1
Bubba Wallace 15-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Joey Logano 18-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Austin Cindric 40-1
Ty Gibbs 40-1
Erik Jones 60-1
Chase Briscoe 60-1
Chris Buescher 75-1
Austin Dillon 75-1
Brad Keselowski 100-1
Aric Almirola 150-1
Ricky Stenhouse 150-1
Cole Custer 300-1
Justin Haley 300-1
Noah Gragson 500-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Ty Dillon 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 2000-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Landon Cassill 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
