Two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Joey Logano won the Daytona 500 in 2015 and finished second last year, making him one of the top 2024 Daytona 500 contenders for Monday's race at 4 p.m. ET. He is 12-1 in the 2024 Daytona 500 odds, sitting behind Brad Keselowski (19-2), Kyle Busch (10-1) and Denny Hamlin (10-1). Keselowski leads all active drivers with seven superspeedway victories and has led the most laps at the Daytona 500 over the last two years. Should you include him in your 2024 Daytona 500 predictions?

Hamlin finished fifth in the Cup Series standings last year with 14 top-five finishes and three wins. The 43-year-old opened the 2024 season with a win at the exhibition race in Los Angeles and has three Daytona 500 wins in his career. Before making any 2024 Daytona 500 picks or NASCAR predictions, you need to see what NASCAR insider Steven Taranto has to say.

Taranto is the lead NASCAR writer for CBSSports.com and chronicles stock car racing with the same thoroughness and passion that he's had since becoming a full-time race fan in 2001. He has an annual NASCAR media credential and will be covering the 2024 Daytona 500 live. 

Taranto also moonlights as a sim racer and has 20 career wins in iRacing. The NASCAR expert publishes a popular weekly NASCAR predictions column and famously called Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez's breakthrough wins in 2022. Anybody who followed those insights scored significant wins with a pair of longshot winners.

Now, Taranto has analyzed the field and odds for Monday's 2024 Daytona 500. He's sharing his best bets at SportsLine.

2024 Daytona 500 expert picks

For the 2024 Daytona 500, Taranto is high on William Byron, even though he's a 16-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Byron was just two points away from being the NASCAR Cup Series champion last year, ultimately finishing third behind Ryan Blaney. He certainly knew before as well, but now more than ever, Byron understands the importance of getting every point possible with hopes of claiming that final prize at the end of the season. Despite not winning the Cup Series, Byron led NASCAR in multiple categories, including victories (six), top-10 finishes (21), stage victories (nine) and was tied for the lead in top-five results (15).

The 26-year-old has run into trouble and bad luck over his last few Daytona 500 races, resulting in accidents in back-to-back years. He did have a strong close to last season though, finishing in the top-10 in seven of his final eight races, including a victory in Texas followed by back-to-back runner-ups. The Daytona 500 always has one of, if not the, best fields in each NASCAR season but given Byron's finish to last season, he's too low on the odds list and the model sees value in playing Byron to win the 2024 Daytona 500.

Another surprise: Taranto is fading 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson (15-1). Larson's record at the Daytona 500 is well documented, as he joins three other former Cup Series champions who are trying to snap double-digit losing skids at this race. He was involved in a final-lap crash last year, falling to 0 for 10 in "The Great American Race."

Larson's struggles at Daytona International Speedway have not only included his inability to take the checkered flag, but it is also the only NASCAR venue where he does not have a single top-five finish. He has finished 18th or worse in half of his Daytona 500 starts, including last year. Due to those stats and Sunday's elite field, Taranto is going elsewhere with his Daytona 500 bets. See what other NASCAR picks he likes at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 Daytona 500 predictions

Taranto has also identified two other drivers in his NASCAR at Daytona best bets. He's also high on a massive NASCAR longshot that is priced at greater than 50-1 in this week's NASCAR odds. You can only see who they are here.

So who wins the Daytona 500 2024? And which longshot has the potential to stun NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the 2024 NASCAR at Daytona picks and best bets from a NASCAR insider who called Chastain and Suarez's breakthrough wins in 2022, and find out.

2024 Daytona 500 odds

See full NASCAR at Daytona picks at SportsLine
Brad Keselowski 19-2
Kyle Busch 10-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Chase Elliott 14-1
Chris Buescher 15-1
Kyle Larson 15-1
William Byron 16-1
Bubba Wallace 20-1
Christopher Bell 22-1
Ty Gibbs 25-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-1
Ross Chastain 28-1
Austin Cindric 28-1
Austin Dillon 28-1
Erik Jones 28-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30-1
Tyler Reddick 30-1
Chase Briscoe 35-1
Michael McDowell 40-1
Josh Berry 40-1
Ryan Preece 45-1
Daniel Suarez 50-1
Harrison Burton 60-1
Justin Haley 60-1
Corey Lajoie 60-1
Jimmie Johnson 60-1
Noah Gragson 60-1
John Hunter Nemechek 60-1
Carson Hocevar 65-1
AJ Allmendinger 65-1
Todd Gilliland 70-1
David Ragan 75-1
Zane Smith 75-1
Riley Herbst 85-1
Daniel Hemric 90-1
Anthony Alfredo 150-1
Kaz Grala 150-1
BJ McLeod 250-1