Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney has come close to winning the Daytona 500 on multiple occasions, including second-place finishes in 2017 and 2020. He is trying to become the sixth defending Cup Series champion to win at Daytona, but he will have to overcome a slew of 2024 Daytona 500 contenders. Blaney is 11-1 in the 2024 Daytona 500 odds, sitting behind Brad Keselowski (19-2), Kyle Busch (10-1) and Denny Hamlin (10-1). Which drivers should you include in your 2024 Daytona 500 bets?

Busch is seeking his first Daytona 500 victory as well, his best finish being a runner-up in 2019. Meanwhile, Hamlin is a three-time winner of this race, potentially making him one of the popular 2024 Daytona 500 picks for Monday's race at 4 p.m. ET. Before scouring the 2024 Daytona 500 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Daytona predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.  

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. 

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021 and nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Daytona 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Daytona leaderboard.

Top 2024 Daytona 500 predictions

For the 2024 Daytona 500, we can tell you the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's a 28-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Daytona odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Chastain has called Daytona his home track, as he grew up watching races at the 2.5-mile, high-banked trioval. The Florida native led 157 of 312 laps in his win at Phoenix last year, holding off reigning Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney.

He stunned the world as a 35-1 longshot in his win in that race, which was the final race of the playoffs. Chastain ranked fifth in total laps led in the NASCAR Cup Series last season and was a bit of a boom-or-bust driver as far as final results were concerned. That is not necessarily a bad thing when it comes to Daytona, as mayhem is expected every year and drivers just need to find a way to avoid getting caught up in wrecks. 

Another massive shocker: Chris Buescher, one of the Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 Daytona 500 starting lineup. A rogue winner at Pocono in 2016, Buescher broke back through for his second victory at Bristol in 2022 and then had a three-win season in 2023 where he finished seventh in the NASCAR standings.

That included a win at the 2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 but he only led two laps in that race and he's failed to finish seven of his 16 career starts at Daytona. He's also managed five top-five finishes at Daytona but he'll be treated differently in the NASCAR Cup Series now that he's established himself as a title contender and the model is fading his co-favorite status. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Daytona picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR Daytona odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Daytona 500 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Daytona odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Daytona leaderboard, all from the model that has called 15 winners since 2021.

2024 Daytona 500 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Daytona picks at SportsLine

Brad Keselowski 19-2
Kyle Busch 10-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Chase Elliott 14-1
Chris Buescher 15-1
Kyle Larson 15-1
William Byron 16-1
Bubba Wallace 20-1
Christopher Bell 22-1
Ty Gibbs 25-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-1
Ross Chastain 28-1
Austin Cindric 28-1
Austin Dillon 28-1
Erik Jones 28-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30-1
Tyler Reddick 30-1
Chase Briscoe 35-1
Michael McDowell 40-1
Josh Berry 40-1
Ryan Preece 45-1
Daniel Suarez 50-1
Harrison Burton 60-1
Justin Haley 60-1
Corey Lajoie 60-1
Jimmie Johnson 60-1
Noah Gragson 60-1
John Hunter Nemechek 60-1
Carson Hocevar 65-1
AJ Allmendinger 65-1
Todd Gilliland 70-1
David Ragan 75-1
Zane Smith 75-1
Riley Herbst 85-1
Daniel Hemric 90-1
Anthony Alfredo 150-1
Kaz Grala 150-1
BJ McLeod 250-1