Kyle Larson finished second to William Byron in last year's Pennzoil 400 before winning a playoff race in October over Christopher Bell. Larson now has two wins, four second-place finishes and 11 top-10s in his last 15 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and is the 21-5 favorite in the 2024 Pennzoil 400 odds for Sunday's race. Byron, who won the Daytona 500 to open the season, is tied with Bell for the second-shortest 2024 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds at 8-1. The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Alex Bowman has not won a Cup Series race since 2022, but finished second at Daytona and his most recent win came at Las Vegas. He is a 22-1 longshot on the NASCAR at Las Vegas odds board, while other top 2024 Pennzoil 400 contenders include Denny Hamlin (9-1), Ryan Blaney (9-1) and Kyle Busch (19-2). Before scouring the 2024 Pennzoil 400 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Las Vegas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Pennzoil 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.  

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. 

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021 and nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Pennzoil 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Las Vegas leaderboard.

Top 2024 Pennzoil 400 predictions

For the 2024 Pennzoil 400, we can tell you the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's a 16-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Logano already has three wins at this 1.5-mile track, putting him in a tie with Brad Keselowski for the most Las Vegas victories among active drivers.

This has been one of his best tracks throughout his career, recording seven top-fives and 12 top-10s in 21 starts. He is desperate for a quality showing on Sunday after disappointing results at Daytona and Atlanta to open the season. SportsLine's model expects another strong showing from Logano at this track, listing him among its favorite longshot bets. 

Another massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 Pennzoil 400 starting lineup. The 29-year-old has managed six wins over the last three seasons and he's worked his way into the championship picture the last two seasons, finishing third in 2022 and fourth in 2023.

Bell finished third after leading 22 laps at Daytona but crashed in Atlanta last week and wound up 34th. He's finished outside the top 20 in four of his eight career starts in Las Vegas and he only has one win on a 1.5-mile oval in his NASCAR Cup Series career. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Las Vegas picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2024 NASCAR Las Vegas longer than 10-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Pennzoil 400 2024, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Las Vegas leaderboard, all from the model that has called 15 winners.

2024 Pennzoil 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Las Vegas picks at SportsLine

Kyle Larson 21-5
William Byron 8-1
Christopher Bell 8-1
Denny Hamlin 9-1
Ryan Blaney 9-1
Kyle Busch 19-2
Tyler Reddick 10-1
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Ross Chastain 12-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Chase Elliott 15-1
Joey Logano 16-1
Alex Bowman 22-1
Bubba Wallace 22-1
Chris Buescher 25-1
Ty Gibbs 25-1
Erik Jones 60-1
Daniel Suarez 60-1
Michael McDowell 100-1
Austin Cindric 125-1
Austin Dillon 150-1
John Hunter Nemechek 150-1
Carson Hocevar 150-1
Josh Berry 200-1
Noah Gragson 200-1
Chase Briscoe 200-1
Todd Gilliland 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Corey Lajoie 300-1
Daniel Hemric 350-1
Ryan Preece 350-1
Harrison Burton 400-1
Zane Smith 400-1
Derek Kraus 450-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Kaz Grala 1500-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1