The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega for the 2024 GEICO 500 on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET, which is one of the most anticipated races of the season. Oddsmakers always have trouble nailing down a favorite on superspeedway tracks, leading to a NASCAR odds board that is packed with longshots. Joey Logano is the 9-1 favorite in the 2024 GEICO 500 odds, followed by Brad Keselowski (10-1) and Ryan Blaney (11-1). Logano is a three-time Talladega winner and finished with the second-most points on superspeedways last season, but he has just one top-10 finish in his last eight visits to this track.

Keselowski is a six-time Talladega winner, while Blaney has five top-two finishes in his last nine tries at this track. Which drivers from the 2024 NASCAR at Talladega starting lineup should you include in your 2024 GEICO 500 bets? Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Talladega predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 GEICO 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. 

Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 GEICO 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Talladega leaderboard.

Top 2024 GEICO 500 predictions

For the 2024 GEICO 500, the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he's a 15-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The veteran is the defending winner at this race, staying clear of a last lap crash to win the race under caution after a double overtime restart. He failed to lead a single lap until double overtime, but he came up clutch to post the 62nd Cup Series win of his career.

Busch also finished third at the spring race in 2022, so he has been the top driver in this race over the past two years. The two-time Cup Series champion ranks ninth on the all-time wins list and has the most victories among active drivers (63), giving him the tools to navigate the challenges of a superspeedway. He finished third in Atlanta earlier this season and is coming off a top-10 finish at Texas Motor Speedway last week. 

Another massive shocker: Joey Logano, a two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion and the Vegas favorite, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Talladega NASCAR starting lineup. The 33-year-old is starting to turn things around after a disastrous start to the season where he finished outside the top 20 in four of the first five races, finishing 11th or better in his last four starts.

However, he's still only 15th in the 2024 NASCAR standings and the three-time Talladega winner has had a very difficult time there in recent years. Logano has only finished inside the top 15 once in his last eight starts in Talladega and he's finished in a worse position then he's started in eight of nine races there. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Talladega picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds longer than 12-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the GEICO 500 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Texas leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.

2024 GEICO 500 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Talladega picks at SportsLine

Joey Logano 9-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Bubba Wallace 12-1
William Byron 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
Ross Chastain 18-1
Christopher Bell 18-1
Kyle Larson 18-1
Ty Gibbs 20-1
Chris Buescher 22-1
Alex Bowman 22-1
Tyler Reddick 22-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-1
Erik Jones 28-1
Austin Cindric 30-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 35-1
Chase Briscoe 35-1
Michael McDowell 35-1
Austin Dillon 40-1
Noah Gragson 40-1
Corey Lajoie 40-1
Todd Gilliland 45-1
Ryan Preece 60-1
Zane Smith 70-1
Justin Haley 70-1
Josh Berry 75-1
John Hunter Nemechek 75-1
Carson Hocevar 75-1
Shane Van Gisbergen 100-1
Daniel Hemric 100-1
Harrison Burton 100-1
Anthony Alfredo 250-1
Cody Ware 500-1
BJ McLeod 500-1