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The Dallas Mavericks host the Indiana Pacers in a cross-conference matchup on Saturday in prime time. The Mavericks are 28-21 overall and 15-9 in home games this season. The Pacers (18-32) are on the second night of a back-to-back after beating Oklahoma City on Friday. Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) and Sterling Brown (foot) are out for the Mavs. Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles), Myles Turner (foot) and Goga Bitadze (foot) are out for the Pacers, while Chris Duarte (ankle) and Domantas Sabonis (ankle) are questionable. 

Caesars Sportsbook lists Dallas as an 11-point home favorite for this 7 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 217 in the latest Pacers vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Pacers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 15 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 58-32 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Pacers, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Pacers vs. Mavs:

  • Mavericks vs. Pacers spread: Mavericks -11
  • Mavericks vs. Pacers over-under: 217 points
  • Mavericks vs. Pacers money line: Mavericks -650, Pacers +450
  • IND: The Pacers are 6-2 against the spread with no rest
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 11-12-1 against the spread in home games
Featured Game | Dallas Mavericks vs. Indiana Pacers

Why the Pacers can cover

Indiana is above-average on offense, scoring 1.1 points per possession, and the offensive glass is a big part of that success. The Pacers are securing 30 percent of available rebounds, a top-three mark in the NBA, and Indiana ranks in the top five in second-chance points. The Pacers are in the top eight of the NBA in points in the paint and 2-point shooting accuracy, with an above-average mark in assists. 

Dallas is No. 24 in the NBA in steals and No. 28 in blocks on defense, allowing the Pacers to be distinctly aggressive. The Pacers also have defensive strengths, including top-five rankings in 3-pointers allowed per game, assists allowed per game and blocked shots per game. Indiana is above-average on the defensive glass, grabbing more than 73 percent of rebounds, and the Mavericks are below-average in 3-point accuracy, free-throw creation and rebounding on the offensive end.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has many strengths, including a rest advantage and home-court advantage in this matchup. In addition to the Mavericks excelling in key areas, Indiana falls short in a few categories, including bottom-five marks in the NBA in 3-point accuracy on offense and free-throw prevention on defense. The Pacers also struggle mightily in the turnover battle, ranking in the bottom 10 in prevention on offense and creation on defense. 

From there, Dallas takes over with elite ball security and tremendous defense. The Mavericks are committing only 12.6 turnovers per game, a top-three mark in the NBA, and Dallas is allowing fewer than 1.07 points per game. Indiana relies on the offensive glass to generate efficiency, but Dallas is securing 74.4 percent of available rebounds, an elite figure on defense. The Mavericks are also No. 2 in the NBA in 3-pointers allowed, giving up only 10.9 triples per game, and Dallas excels at keeping opponents off the free-throw line.

How to make Pacers vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 212 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Pacers? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.