It's the day before the start of the 2023 NFL Draft and no one knows anything after pick No. 1.
I had one GM tell me he has fewer than 10 prospects with first-round grades on his "personal" board. A majority of NFL teams picking in the first round are going to knowingly select someone they have a second-round grade on.
Draft-day trades are going to be fascinating. Once we get past the midway point in the draft, will teams be willing to trade up/back into the first round? Or will they wait and not "waste" current or future draft capital for a player they don't believe is a first-rounder?
My last mock had four trades and this one only has one. We will very likely have more trades than represented below, but by the end I was trying to match up players to teams without guessing at so many unknown variables.
To the mock!
Note: There are only 31 picks in this mock draft because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-round pick due to tampering.
For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our new weekly podcast, "With the First Pick," featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. (Check out the latest episode below.)
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
He's going to be the pick. He's about the only thing we know for certain in this year's draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
I wasn't sure of it last week but it seems clear the Texans aren't interested in going QB at No. 2. Anderson is the safest defensive player in the draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
We all know the Cardinals want to trade back but in this mock, they don't find a dance partner. Arizona goes here with the offensive tackle with the best feet to help protect Kyler Murray for the foreseeable future.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
We had Levis mocked to Indy last week and he sticks there in this one. Lot of noise around him going to Houston at No. 2, and that's possible.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
John Schneider has no fear. He's missed on some defensive linemen in the draft before, but that won't stop him here. This pick could well be Anthony Richardson if they pass on Carter.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 6
If Jalen Carter is off the board, I think Detroit doesn't think twice about taking Witherspoon here.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
The Raiders have to add on defense here. It's possible they don't let Stroud pass by, but after all the misses from the previous regime, it's time to get some draft picks who are ready to play and contribute now.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
The Falcons have told everyone they're sticking with Desmond Ridder as their guy, and they continue to add weapons around him with Robinson at No. 8.
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From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
The Bears take the kid out of their backyard and can start him at guard or tackle once they get him in camp and decide what he is.
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From
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 10
With the top two tackles off the board, I like the Eagles to go pass rusher here and get younger along their front.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Bad news for C.J. Stroud is the fall will cost him money. Good news is he goes to a great situation with Mike Vrabel and the Titans. It's really hard to believe Stroud falls this far.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 12
If the Texans pass on a QB at No. 2, they have to find one somewhere. Richardson isn't ready to start, but I truly feel in my bones the Texans have to take a quarterback with one of their top picks.
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From
New York Jets
Round 1 - Pick 13
A fall for one of the draft's top players but he winds up in an incredible situation in Green Bay.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Bill Belichick goes back to Athens, where he's plenty familiar, to get an offensive tackle.
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From
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 15
There will be some OT-thirsty teams that may trade up ahead of the Jets, who have to add some protection for Aaron Rodgers.
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Mock Trade from
Washington Commanders
Round 1 - Pick 16
Smith could well go to Philly, Green Bay or New England ahead of this pick. But in this mock where he's "falling" slightly, I think Detroit trades up to get a pass rusher.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Unless the Steelers move up for an offensive tackle, they stay put and get a very familiar face in Porter Jr.
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Mock Trade from
Detroit Lions
Round 1 - Pick 18
With the top tackles and corners gone, Washington trades down to get a very good corner in Banks.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Another team that wants an offensive tackle but there just aren't enough. The Bucs fill a need at tight end instead.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
The first receiver is finally off the board! JSN heads to Seattle as its third receiver.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
The run on wideouts begins here. The Chargers could go tight end but they need speed more than anything else on offense.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
The Ravens added OBJ earlier this month and they aren't done yet. A trade back could well be in the cards for Baltimore.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
I can see GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah going with the Tennessee QB here and letting him learn more complex NFL offenses for a year behind Kirk Cousins. I could also see him taking CB Emmanuel Forbes and adding 10 pounds to him over the year.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Every team I talk to keeps mocking defensive linemen to Jacksonville, so I send them the best one available.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Big Blue can still find value at wide receiver while sticking to their board and getting their best player available.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Tony Pollard didn't wait to sign his franchise tag and that was a smart thing. The Cowboys taking Gibbs here would officially close the door on a Zeke Elliott return.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
An obvious need for Buffalo gets filled with Campbell, who's the first linebacker off the board.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
I won't be surprised if Mayer is the first tight end off the board much higher. In this case, the Bengals run the card up to get him.
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From
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 29
The Saints pounce on a fantastic defensive tackle with short arms but loaded with everything else.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
The Eagles take care of their need at young pass rusher by getting McDonald here. Look for a trade-out here too.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
He worked out earlier this month with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will always look to add around the best quarterback in the league.
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