2012 NFL season over/under win totals released: NFC analysis
There were some 2012 NFL over/under win totals released by Cantor gaming. Sure it's only May, but that doesn't mean we can't analyze them and figure out who is under- and over-valued in Vegas. Here we take a look at the NFC.
|Eli's got the trophy, but will Vick win more games in 2012? (Getty Images)|
The plan was originally to break down all the 2012 NFL over/under win totals together. But when I wrote the AFC breakdown earlier, it got a little long. So I'm splitting it up and now covering the NFC side of things.
Cantor Gaming released these odds (they're available for betting in seven different sportsbooks) and we got them via Covers.com. For novice gambling fans, the (-XXX) indicates the juice on certain bets. For instance, if an over is "-120," you would need to bet $120 in order to win $100. If a bet is +105, $100 would win you $105.
To the NFC totals. Leave whatever you think is the most ridiculous line in the comments.
NFC EastPhiladelphia Eagles, 10 wins
Over (-135) / Under (+105): So does Vegas love Philly or what? This is the second-highest win total for an NFC team, and you're heavily penalized for betting on the over, in terms of juice. Of course, if you believe that Michael Vick will be healthy for 16 games, you probably don't care, since the Eagles are a pretty good bet to hit double-digit wins. They shouldn't start like last season and their schedule appears very friendly. If Michael Vick can stay healthy. Verdict: UNDER
New York Giants, 9.5 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): And here's the rub with the Eagles as well. Whatever happens in the two games between the defending-champion Giants and defending-offseason-champion Eagles will probably determine the outcome of these two totals. I wrote about it last week, but I still believe the Giants are the better team and no I don't care that they only won one more game than Philly last year. (My friend Clark Judge heartily disagrees.) I'm sticking by my guns. Verdict: OVER
Dallas Cowboys, 8.5 wins
Over (-125) / Under (-105): The NFC East is a big, hot mess up top, and that shouldn't be surprising. Philly almost backdoored the playoffs last year and Dallas should've been locked before coughing up their spot to the Giants. But this year's Cowboys wouldn't have coughed up those late games: they have Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne in the secondary and that drastically changes things. This looks like a nine-win and potential division winner to me. Verdict: OVER
Washington Redskins, 6.5 wins
Over (Even) / Under (-130): And then there was the wild card. I think that Robert Griffin III fits perfectly with what Mike Shanahan wants to do. I'm scared by them nearly starting 5-0 last year with Rex Grossman (and some John Beck) under center. But I look at their schedule down the stretch and after the bye they have seven games. Five are against NFC East teams and one is against the Ravens. They'll only be favored -- I think -- at Cleveland. All their easy games save the Vikings are on the road. They'll move forward but not enough. Verdict: UNDER
NFC NorthGreen Bay Packers, 12 wins
Over (-125) / Under (-105): Along with the Pats, Green Bay's the only team with a total higher than 10. This shouldn't be shocking given that a) they won 15 games in 2011, and b) they went all defense in the draft. 12 games is tough, though, you guys. Cantor Sportsbook director said of the overs for the Pats and Pack: "We'll be happy to take those bets." I wouldn't make one myself, but looking at the Pack's schedule, I certainly wouldn't take the under either (13 seems right). Verdict: OVER
Detroit Lions, 9.5 wins
Over (+105) / Under (-135): There's been plenty of drama surrounding Jim Schwartz's troops this offseason, and there's reason to wonder if they're not a little out of control. But there's also reason to believe this team could get back to the playoffs again, especially if the Lions have a semblance of a running game. It was definitely smart to steal Riley Reiff for protection purposes, but that secondary is really scary, especially in a division with Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers. Downside is eight wins and missing in the playoffs in a very crowded NFC Wild-Card race. Verdict: UNDER
Chicago Bears, 8.5 wins
Over (-135) / Under (+105): The dumbest move for the Bears this offseason? Not beefing up their offensive line. But the smartest move? Getting a competent backup quarterback in Jason Campbell. This team was headed to 10 or 11 wins before Cutler's injury last season. The defense will/could/should regress some and is older, but the offense should be much, much better with the addition of Brandon Marshall, the growth of their linemen and the departure of Mike Martz. I love betting against the Bears Verdict: OVER
Minnesota Vikings, 6 wins
Over (Even) / Under (-130): So the Vikings won three games last year and there's almost a 100-percent chance that Adrian Peterson won't be 100-percent healthy when the season begins and they're gonna win six games this year in one of the toughest divisions in football? *books one-way flight to Las Vegas* They do have a really, really easy schedule, but that's what happens when you're a two-win team. Verdict: UNDER
NFC SouthNew Orleans Saints, 10 wins
Over (-125) / Under (-105): Easily the most controversial line of the year. Colbert says Cantor "mathematically ... [has] the Saints at just under 10" wins on the year and "would be willing to make a gigantic bet they don't win 12." I concur. Only one of their away games (at Atlanta) is in a dome this year and last year it took Drew Brees shattering offensive records to win 13 games. They've suffered some losses, they're switching schemes on defense and they've dealt with just a tiny bit of turmoil this offseason. Verdict: UNDER
Atlanta Falcons, 9 wins
Over (+105) / Under (-135): Are the Falcons the most bland team in the NFL in the public's eye? It feels like they might be. Which is why people will be surprised with this year's offense when it goes away from Michael Turner and to the vertical pass. It's a potential re-breakout for Matt Ryan and a big year for Julio Jones under Dirk Koetter. They're schedule isn't easy, but I think it's favorable. Verdict: OVER
Carolina Panthers, 7.5 wins
Over (-115) / Under (-115): Logic says that a Panthers team with a rookie quarterback and a horrible defense that won six games last year should automatically improve. I dig that logic, but Cam Newton and the Panthers have a tough schedule in 2012. They travel to Philly, KC, San Diego and Chicago and play Denver and Dallas at home. But Luke Kuechly and healthy bodies on the defensive line should equate to an improved defense. The offense should be just as dangerous in Year 2 as well. It's a squeaker, but I've got them at eight wins. Verdict: OVER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): When I start thinking about the additions of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, Eric Wright, Mark Barron, Doug Martin, well, I start doing the Monty Burns thing with my fingers. Then I remember that if Aqib Talib is suspended/in jail the Buccaneers secondary is going to be strrrrrruggl-ing. And when I start thinking about Gerald McCoy getting healthy and Josh Freeman returning to form, I think the rushing defense and passing attack could significantly improve. But when I run through the schedule, I come up with five wins. What? Someone has to lose them. Verdict: UNDER
NFC WestSan Francisco 49ers, 10 wins
Over (+105) / Under (-135): If you took the Niners over last year, you're playing with house money. And considering you get positive juice for taking the over on a team that's returning its entire defense, added weapons at wide receiver and plays in a weak division. I went through their schedule and got nine wins worst case here. That's still falling back to the pack you know? Verdict: OVER
Seattle Seahawks, 7 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): I'm done pretending I know what Pete Carroll is going to do. Seattle's quarterback situation remains as mystifying as it did the day he got there. This defense is going to be very good (maybe great?) but I can't be 100-percent sold on the offense just yet. Marshawn Lynch's contract was odd and the offensive line has dealt with a lot of injuries. I could see another strong second-half push for Seattle though. Verdict: PUSH
Arizona Cardinals, 7 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): It's almost like the Seahawks and the Cards are the same team. Are they? Well, no. But they're not that far apart -- if Arizona had Seattle's offensive line I'd feel a lot better about throwing cash after Kevin Kolb, Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. I just don't think they can keep their quarterback(s) upright long enough to hit the talented wideouts. The defense will be good again, but not that good. Verdict: UNDER
St. Louis Rams, 6 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): For me, whether or not the Rams can turn things back around quickly largely depends on how much of an impact rookies Janoris Jenkins and Brian Quick can make. If Jenkins is clean off the field, he could be great on it, and the Rams secondary suddenly looks a little dangerous. And if Quick can impact the Rams off the bat, Sam Bradford -- who said Thursday he's still sore in his ankle -- could return to form. Their early season schedule is brutal once again though, and Jeff Fisher might know he's one more year away from making a push. Verdict: UNDER
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