One AFC East team will advance to next week's Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs, and the other will go home until next year when the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots collide for the third time this season in a Super Wild Card Weekend game on Saturday night at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The teams split the earlier two matchups; the Patriots (10-7) won in Week 13 in Buffalo, while the Bills (11-6) prevailed in Week 16 in Foxborough, Mass. But Saturday's game will be just the second postseason matchup between the teams. In the AFL Divisional Round in 1963, the Patriots defeated the Bills 26-8. 

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS. Buffalo is a five-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the over-under for total points scored is 43. Before making any Patriots vs. Bills picks or NFL playoff predictions, you need to see the Wild Card picks from legendary handicapper Hammerin' Hank Goldberg at SportsLine. 

A beloved national treasure, Goldberg enjoyed 15 winning seasons in his 17-year ESPN run. In 2017, Hammer competed against 10 top handicappers in the Las Vegas Review-Journal's NFL Challenge and beat them all, finishing 50-29-6 in against-the-spread picks. 

He also has a keen eye for both of these teams, especially Buffalo. He 20-11-2 (+763) in his last 33 against-the-spread picks in games involving the Bills and 18-11 (+571) in his last 29 against-the-spread picks in games involving the Patriots. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, he has locked in on the Bills vs. Patriots Wild Card game and released a confident against-the-spread pick. You can head to SportsLine now to see Goldberg's Wild Card Weekend picks. Now, here are the NFL odds and Wild Card betting lines for Patriots vs. Bills on Saturday:

  • Bills vs. Patriots spread: Buffalo -5
  • Bills vs. Patriots Over-Under: 43 points 
  • Bills vs. Patriots money line: Buffalo -230, New England +190
  • BUF: Bills led the league in total defense (272.8 total yards per game) 
  • NE: Patriots were No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense (17.8 points per game)

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo faces a New England quarterback, Mac Jones, who will be unfamiliar with the weather conditions. The forecast for Saturday night is for the temperature to drop to around zero degrees with the wind chill around -4 degrees. Jones, who grew up in Florida and played college football at Alabama, has played in only one college or pro game in which the temperature was below freezing.

In addition, running back Devin Singletary finished the season on a roll. The third-year running back from Florida Atlantic had just seven rushing touchdowns this season, but five came over the last four games. He also has rushed for 80-plus yards in three of his last four games.

Why the Patriots can cover

New England's defense has excelled on the road this season. The Patriots led the league in total defense (284 yards), scoring defense (16 points) and pass defense (157 yards) on the road during the regular season. The defense helped the team go 6-2 away from Gillette Stadium.

In addition, New England running back Damien Harris has gashed Buffalo in his short career. The third-year running back has run for 100 yards and scored a touchdown in all three career games against the Bills. On Sunday, he faces a Buffalo defense that allowed 19 rushing touchdowns this season, tied for the fifth-most in the league and most among playoff teams.

How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

Hammer, who has inside sources throughout the league, has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning Under on the point total, he has discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's sharing what it is, and which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread to back only at SportsLine.

Who wins Patriots vs. Bills in the NFL playoffs 2022? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the NFL handicapping legend who is 20-11 on picks in games involving the Bills, and find out.