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Every year, the NFL standings are an exercise in parity. Our first instinct, when assessing teams on paper, is to crown recent contenders and overlook the bottom-dwellers, when in fact history tells us that at least a handful of playoff spots will change hands. The same can be said of the league's eight divisions; in 2022, for example, half of them had different champions than the year prior.

With that in mind, who's most likely to keep their division title in 2023? Who's most likely to lose it? Here's our rundown of the most vulnerable reigning champions, from shakiest to sturdiest:

1. Buccaneers (NFC South)

2022 record: 8-9 | Division title streak: 2 seasons

The talent isn't awful on either side of the ball, but this is what happens when Tom Brady exits in favor of Baker Mayfield under center. Yes, Brady was sluggish in his final season, but if they could barely control the NFC South with his vision at quarterback, it's hard to feel good about his holdover staff -- still led by the conservative Todd Bowles -- fending off the Falcons, Panthers and Saints, all of whom are younger and/or improved, and especially with an O-line also in transition.

2. Vikings (NFC North)

2022 record: 13-4 | Division title streak: 1 season

The Vikings' penchant for tight-game wins masked their porous defense and negative point differential in 2022. Kevin O'Connell's spirited leadership and Justin Jefferson's explosiveness mean they should remain competitive. But the Lions were already on the come-up and are now poised to make a legit playoff run, with Dan Campbell's squad boasting a well-rounded offense and feistier "D." The Packers are a wild card but could easily remain in the wild-card hunt if Jordan Love's debut as Aaron Rodgers' successor goes well. And the Bears should at least be a few games better now that Justin Fields has a supporting cast.

3. Bengals (AFC North)

2022 record: 12-4 | Division title streak: 2 seasons

Betting against Joe Burrow atop the North feels a touch foolish, but the fact is this division should be tough from top to bottom. The second-place Ravens managed 10 wins even with Lamar Jackson sidelined down the stretch, and now Jackson should be motivated -- and slightly better suited, with a deeper receiving corps -- to live up to his new contract. The Browns are also poised to air it out more, with Deshaun Watson under pressure to deliver after a poor Cleveland debut. And the Steelers might be the friskiest of them all, pairing Mike Tomlin's perpetually tough "D" with an improved setup for Kenny Pickett.

4. Eagles (NFC East)

2022 record: 14-3 | Division title streak: 1 season

Two things can be true: 1.) The Eagles probably remain the most talented roster in the NFL after a Super Bowl shootout with the Chiefs, and 2.) Their road to a second straight division title is daunting. With the hardest schedule according to opponents' 2022 win percentage, including a brutal late-year stretch against contenders, they might need another MVP-level campaign from Jalen Hurts to keep pace with the Cowboys and Giants, each of whom made offensive upgrades to playoff-caliber lineups.

5. Bills (AFC East)

2022 record: 13-3 | Division title streak: 3 seasons

Like the Eagles, they're clearly among the class of their conference. But the intra-division competition figures to be steep to go along with a tough schedule. Even if Josh Allen and Co. are lighting up the scoreboard, they have at least two legit rivals to worry about: The Jets are plugging a motivated Aaron Rodgers into a balanced playoff-caliber roster, and the Dolphins have both elite offensive speed and a better defensive leader in Vic Fangio; if QB Tua Tagovailoa can stay upright, they should be in the mix.

6. 49ers (NFC West)

2022 record: 13-4 | Division title streak: 1 season

The QB uncertainty is a big X-factor here: Is it Brock Purdy, Trey Lance or Sam Darnold in Week 1? And what about from there? Not a single one of those guys is guaranteed to match the 2022 production of Purdy and/or Jimmy Garoppolo, due to varying circumstances. Yet Kyle Shanahan's still got plenty of weapons on both sides of the ball, his system has proven relatively QB-proof before, and most importantly, only the Seahawks register as a true rival to be reckoned with. The Rams still have Sean McVay guiding Matthew Stafford, but they're admittedly retooling; the Cardinals, meanwhile, are even deeper into rebuild mode.

7. Jaguars (AFC South)

2022 record: 9-8 | Division title streak: 1 season

Is a team that barely eclipsed .500 really one of the safest bets to repeat as a division champ? This is certainly an endorsement of the Trevor Lawrence-Doug Pederson pairing, which endured gunslinging streaks to come up big down the stretch (and now adds Calvin Ridley to the fold). It's also an indictment of the South, which has both the Colts and Texans hitting the reset button at coach and QB. Mike Vrabel's Titans are always feistier than expected, but under new management, with aging fan favorites like Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry seemingly on their last legs in Nashville, they don't have the personnel to match Jacksonville.

8. Chiefs (AFC West)

2022 record: 14-3 | Division title streak: 7 seasons

It really doesn't matter what else occurs around the West -- the Broncos have a fiercer leader in Sean Payton and should revert to the run-based concepts that benefitted Russell Wilson earlier in his career, the Chargers have a laser-armed face of the franchise in Justin Herbert and the Raiders made lateral swaps to import Josh McDaniels' old Patriots friends. At the end of the day, as long as Patrick Mahomes is playing QB for Andy Reid and Travis Kelce is lining up as his top target, the Chiefs cannot be bet against.