The Buffalo Bills have two very different possible fates as we head into the regular season finale. One option is they could end up with the No. 2 seed in the AFC and have a home game next week to kick off the playoffs. Another scenario also puts them at home next week, but it would be home on their couch watching the other playoff teams as they sit eliminated.
If the 10-6 Bills defeat the 11-5 Miami Dolphins in Week 18, they will not only make the playoffs, but will be AFC East champions.
If they lose, they will rely on what happens with both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars, as well as the Houston Texans game against the Indianapolis Colts.
For the Bills to be eliminated from the playoffs, a few things need to happen.
First, the 9-7 Steelers need to defeat the Baltimore Ravens, who are currently 13-3 and have secured the No. 1 seed. While that may seem like a reach, the Ravens will likely be resting many starters for much of, if not the entire game. Baltimore is coming off a 56-19 win over the Dolphins.
The 9-7 Jaguars also would need to defeat the Tennessee Titans, who stand at 5-11. The Jags are coming off a 26-0 win over the Carolina Panthers, while the Titans are coming off a 26-3 loss to the Texans.
The third piece of the puzzle is the Texans and Colts game cannot end in a tie. The winner does not matter, but someone must win when they face off Saturday.
Buffalo and Miami face off in game No. 272, the final game of the regular season, on "Sunday Night Football." This means the Bills will know going into the game whether their playoff chances rely solely on a win after seeing the results of the other three games.
Miami has already clinched a playoff spot, but its seeding is not yet secure. Right now, it stands as the No. 2 seed while the Bills are No. 6. Buffalo currently has a 88.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 54.2% chance of winning the division, according to SportsLine Data Scientist Stephen Oh.
The Bills stood at 6-6 just a month ago before going on a four-game winning streak. Entering Week 14, the Bills had a 15% chance of making the playoffs, according to Oh. Now they could secure home field for up until, at the very least, the AFC Championship, if they make it that far.
