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The top two teams in the AFC West collide when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. The division-leading Chiefs (4-0) have won the AFC West title four straight seasons and can build a three-game lead just five weeks into the year with a victory on Sunday. They also are tied with Buffalo for the best record in the AFC. Meanwhile, the second-place Raiders (2-2) have lost back-to-back games to New England and Buffalo and haven't won the division since claiming three straight AFC West titles from 2000 to 2002.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Kansas City is an 11-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Raiders odds from William Hill, while the over-under is 54.5. Before making any Raiders vs. Chiefs picks, check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 7-4 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 5 on an incredible 103-69 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Chiefs vs. Raiders 10,000 times. You can visit SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Raiders spread: Kansas City -11
  • Chiefs vs. Raiders Over-Under: 54.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Raiders money line: Kansas City -650, Las Vegas +475
  • KC: Opponents have just three sacks this season, tied for the fewest in the league.
  • LV: The Raiders rank second in the NFL in third down conversions (52.9 percent).

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City has a favorable matchup going against Las Vegas' defense. Through four games, the Raiders are allowing 30.0 points per game, and only eight teams are giving up more. This is just the fifth time in franchise history that the Raiders have allowed at least 120 points in the first four games of a season.

In addition, the Chiefs have dominated the series against Vegas recently. Kansas City has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the teams, including the last five. The Chiefs' average margin of victory during the five-game winning streak is 19.8.

Why the Raiders can cover

Quarterback Derek Carr is playing arguably the best football of his career. The seven-year veteran has completed 73.6 percent of his passes and has thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception. His completion percentage and quarterback rating (113.6) would be the highest of his career.

In addition, Las Vegas has been one of the best teams on third down this season. Through four weeks the Raiders are converting 52.9 percent of their third downs. That ranks second in the league.

How to make Chiefs vs. Raiders picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it's calling for 58 total points. It has also generated an extremely strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here

So who wins Chiefs vs. Raiders? And which side of the spread cashes in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Raiders vs. Chiefs spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,300 on its NFL picks over the past five-plus seasons, and find out.