Just two weeks remain in the 2021 regular season and it still feels like all the drama is still in front of us. Only one team in the AFC has officially punched its ticket into the playoffs, so there is potential for some serious movement in that conference. The NFC playoff picture is a bit clearer, but there is still potential for some shakeup with the remaining wild-card spots up for grabs. Naturally, all of these high-stakes games make it that much more exciting to bet on, which is what we'll be focusing on here today.
We were again above .500 with our picks in the Week 16 slate, albeit not by much as we went 9-7 over the entire slate. We'll look to improve upon those totals and get a bigger payout now that we're turning out full attention to Week 17, beginning with our five locks of the week.
2021 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 46-30-4
ATS: 118-118-4
ML: 149-90-1
Giants at Bears
It hasn't been pretty for the Giants over the last month. They come into Week 17 on a four-game losing streak where the quarterback play has been subpar following Daniel Jones' season-ending neck injury. Last week, Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm combined for just 108 yards passing and will now catch a Bears team that has been pesky as of late. Chicago is coming off a solid road win against the Seahawks and David Montgomery has been a versatile threat out of the backfield. On top of his abilities as a runner, he's also averaging 43.5 receiving yards over the last month. This season, New York is giving up roughly 125.3 yards on the ground (26th in the NFL). Chicago could be able to win this game by a touchdown, especially against a Giants club that is under .500 ATS on the road this year.
Projected score: Chicago 24, Giants 17
The pick: Bears -6
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Lions at Seahawks
The Lions are the gift that keeps on giving this season, so why not go back to the well? Detroit is 10-5 ATS, which is tied for the third-best mark in the entire NFL. Seattle is coming off of a loss to Chicago last week that officially eliminated them from postseason contention, so we could be seeing a not-so-motivated team take the field on Sunday. While the Seahawks have historically enjoyed a strong home-field advantage, they are just 3-4 ATS at Lumen Field this year. Meanwhile, the Lions are 5-3 ATS on the road entering Week 17 and are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games.
Projected score: Seattle 23, Lions 20
The pick: Lions +7
Vikings at Packers
Getting the Packers laying less than seven is almost an auto-bet at this point. Yes, they failed to cover against Cleveland last week but more often than not Green Bay has been kind to bettors this season. Entering Week 17, Aaron Rodgers' club is 11-4 ATS (second-best in the NFL), and is 6-1 ATS at home (best in the NFL). With the No. 1 seed still up for grabs, the Packers won't be going on cruise control en-route to the postseason anytime soon. That's bad news for a Minnesota team that couldn't fend off the Rams last week, despite picking off Matthew Stafford three times.
Projected score: Packers 30, Vikings 21
The pick: Packers -6.5
Cardinals at Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys made one heck of a statement last Sunday night. After the prior events of Week 16 clinched the division for Jerry Jones' club, they took the field against Washington and went nuclear. While it may be too much to expect a similar outcome in Week 17, they should be able to clear the 5.5-point spread against a reeling Arizona club. The Cardinals have lost four straight and have completely lost their once firm grip on the NFC. In last week's loss to the Colts, they struggled mightily on special teams, gave up a safety, and couldn't string along any positive drives together. If that continues, Dallas -- who is an NFL-best 12-3 ATS this season -- will leave them in the dust.
Projected score: Cowboys 33, Cardinals 27
The pick: Cowboys -5.5
Falcons at Bills
This is more of a gut-check bet than anything. After an emotional win against the Patriots up in Foxborough last week, Buffalo could be in for a bit of a letdown. I don't expect them to lose this game by any stretch, but they could keep it within the two-score margin that the oddsmakers have given Atlanta. The Falcons are 5-3 ATS as the road team this season and have moved the ball much better on the road (5.4 yards per play) than at home (4.7 yards per play) on offense. As for Buffalo, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a straight-up win and are only 3-3-1 ATS at home this season.
Projected score: Bills 30, Falcons 17
The pick: Falcons +14.5
Rest of the Bunch
Chiefs at Bengals
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Bengals 24
The pick: Chiefs -5
Dolphins at Titans
Projected score: Titans 27, Dolphins 20
The pick: Titans -3.5
Raiders at Colts
Projected score: Colts 28, Raiders 21
The pick: Colts -6.5
Jaguars at Patriots
Projected score: Patriots 27, Jaguars 10
The pick: Patriots -15.5
Buccaneers at Jets
Projected score: Buccaneers 33, Jets 17
The pick: Buccaneers -13
Eagles at Washington
Projected score: Washington 23, Eagles 21
The pick: Washington +3.5
Rams at Ravens
Projected score: Rams 27, Ravens 23
The pick: Rams -3.5
Broncos at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 27, Broncos 21
The pick: Chargers -5.5
Texans at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 28, Texans 17
The pick: Texans +12.5
Panthers at Saints
Projected score: Saints 27, Panthers 17
The pick: Saints -6.5
Browns at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 23, Browns 21
The pick: Steelers +3
