Kind of a gross week for #DajaniDimes. I don't like going 2-3 ATS with my top five picks, but HOW I went 2-3 ATS had me rattled.
The Washington Commanders covering eight points vs. the Philadelphia Eagles is a loss I'll gladly accept. Congrats to Washington. But as for the Kansas City Chiefs not covering vs. the New York Jets and the Arizona Cardinals not covering vs. the San Francisco 49ers? Those were BAD beats.
Patrick Mahomes had his goal-line slide in the fourth quarter that cost a lot of people money, and then Zach Ertz and Zach Pascal both dropped touchdowns with under 20 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter that would have covered the spread for Arizona. Gross.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 10-8-2
Overall ATS record: 29-33-2
Straight up record: 38-26
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Let's see if I can start the week with a win. The Bears are on a 14-game losing streak, which is the longest active skid in the NFL. They've also allowed at least 25 points in those 14 games, and blew a 21-point lead to the Denver Broncos on Sunday. That game was wild, as it appeared the Bears were on their way to a statement victory. But then mistakes on both sides of the ball, combined with poor coaching decisions, ruined it. Now, the Bears have to rebound on a short week on the road with a coach firmly on the hot seat.
As for the Commanders, they fell to the Eagles in overtime, but it was an impressive outing in which Sam Howell rebounded from a horrid showing vs. the Buffalo Bills to throw for 290 yards and one touchdown. The offensive line still wasn't perfect, but that Eagles defensive front is tough to contain.
Washington has a pretty clean injury report heading into this matchup while Chicago will be without safety Eddie Jackson and cornerback Jaylon Johnson. The Commanders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings against the Bears, while Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 prime-time games. Chicago hasn't covered the spread ONCE this season, so I'll take the Commanders to cover in front of a sold-out crowd.
The pick: Commanders -6
Projected score: Commanders 28-17
I love the Commanders in this spot, but if you want a different opinion on which way to lean for Thursday night's game, then I suggest you go to SportsLine so you can check out Larry Hartstein's pick. Hartstein is a gambling guru who has hit on 26 of his last 36 picks involving the Commanders.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) (London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
This pick isn't solely based off of how Buffalo took care of Miami last Sunday. It's more about the run the Bills have been on as of late. They have won three straight games by 28 or more points. Think about that for a second. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are studs, but this defense has been good too. They've allowed a second-best 13.8 points per game through four weeks, rank first in takeaways with 11 and are tied for first in sacks with 16. The loss of Tre'Davious White hurts, but I like Dane Jackson to step up in his place.
The Jaguars remained abroad for their second-straight London game, but is that something that will help, or hurt? The Jags haven't looked like the bonafide favorites to win the AFC South through four games, while the Bills look like one of the best teams in the entire league. I'll take this number under six points.
The pick: Bills -5.5
Projected score: Bills 27-20
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-10)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox fubo)
It's a big number, but the Panthers are not very good. Carolina lost by 14 points in Week 1, three points in Week 2, 10 points in Week 3 and eight points in Week 4. Both double-digit losses came on the road, so that's why Vegas is expecting another one here.
Bryce Young has potential, but we can't ignore the slow start he's had. The No. 1 overall pick averages 167.7 passing yards per game, which ranks No. 32 in the league, and has a 24.9 QBR, which ranks No. 34. His offensive line has done him no favors and his wideouts are a position group the front office is already looking to improve. I thought this team was going to be a sleeper in the division. I'm ready to admit I was wrong on that.
As for Detroit, the Lions are coming off of an impressive road win over the Green Bay Packers, and had a long week to prepare for this matchup. They have won each of their past two games by 14 points, and now Jameson Williams could be on the way back. Carolina is 0-3-1 ATS this year. Give me the Lions to roar.
The pick: Lions -10
Projected score: Lions 30-16
Tennessee Titans (-2) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans actually opened up as underdogs, but have quickly been bet up to two-point favorites. That makes me feel a bit better about this pick. It's true that Tennessee has been terrible on the road this year (0-2, 9.0 points per game), but the Colts haven't won a home game yet. Something has to give in this divisional showdown, and I'm going to take the team that I believe is better.
The Titans have had the Colts' number as of late. Tennessee has won five straight vs. Indy, and has won by an average of 9.4 points per game. Derrick Henry has been a monster in this span, rushing for 120.2 yards per game and four touchdowns. He's coming off of his best outing of the season, rushing for 122 yards and a touchdown vs. Cincinnati.
Containing Anthony Richardson as a rusher and forcing him to beat you with his arm down the field is the key for Tennessee defensively, and I have faith in Mike Vrabel to do just that. The Titans are 3-1 ATS this year, so I'll take them here.
The pick: Titans -2
Projected score: Titans 20-17
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The 49ers have been rolling, but when is this going to come to an end? They haven't lost a regular-season game since acquiring Christian McCaffrey, and Brock Purdy hasn't lost a regular-season start either. The 49ers eliminated the Cowboys from the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, but could Dallas pull off the upset here?
Pressure is key here. Purdy completed just 4 of 12 passes for 55 yards when pressured in the win over the Cowboys in January. The Cowboys have the highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (55%) and Micah Parsons has been the king of pressure (league-leading 26% pressure rate). I think this Cowboys defense comes out extra motivated.
Offensively, Dak Prescott's two interceptions in their last matchup really hurt, and I'm sure that's been on his mind. The Cowboys are 13-6 ATS on the road since 2021, which is tied for best in the NFL. With the number over a field goal, I want to take Dallas.
The pick: Cowboys +4
Projected score: 49ers 24-21
Other Week 5 picks
Ravens (-4) 24-17 over Steelers
Dolphins (-11) 38-20 over Giants
Saints (+1) 21-13 over Patriots
Falcons (-2) 27-24 over Texans
Bengals (-3) 26-20 over Cardinals
Eagles 27-24 over Rams (+4.5)
Jets (+1.5) 14-9 over Broncos
Chiefs (-4) 28-21 over Vikings
Raiders (+1) 20-17 over Packers
