Week 6 and Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season were probably the two toughest weeks to predict so far as it relates to gambling, but we still walked away with a winning a record. We went 17-10-1 over the last two weeks, and possibly 18-10 depending on where you grabbed the Cincinnati Bengals' spread against the Cleveland Browns. Thankfully, Cody Parkey missed the extra point after the Browns' game-winning touchdown, so we technically got a wash on the Bengals +3, but I know some of you grabbed it at +3.5.
My lock of the week in the Green Bay Packers -3.5 over the Houston Texans came to fruition, as Davante Adams ran wild in the 35-20 victory. We also jumped on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bandwagon while we could and correctly predicted Justin Herbert covering the spread in his first-ever career win. One game we did get wrong, however, was claiming that the Buffalo Bills would cover against the New York Jets. Adam Gase secured his first victory against the spread in 2020, but is a massive underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. Can Gase and the Jets cover the spread again this week?
Below, I will give you my top five picks of the week, followed by the rest of the bunch. Let's go ahead and jump in.
All odds courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook.
Top five picks record: 20-14-1
Overall ATS record: 61-38-3
Who'll cover the spread in Week 8? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and Kenny White join Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to pick every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Titans -5.5
I wrote earlier this week that I was surprised to see the Titans open up as four-point favorites over a one-win Bengals team. That line obviously has moved, but I'm still bullish on this pick. During the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, I actually think we learned more about Tennessee. The 17-point run the Titans orchestrated in the second half almost won them the game, and they did enough to prove that they are still one of the best teams in the NFL. The Bengals are 5-1 against the spread since Week 2 and failed to cover by one point in their season opener, but I really believe the Titans can cover a touchdown here in Week 8.
The pick: Titans 30-21
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Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Browns -2.5
I'm not sold on the Browns, and I'm not going to praise them for mounting a comeback against the one-win Bengals. They have a -21 point differential this season, which is the third-worst point differential by a five-win team through seven games since 2000. The Raiders were clearly outmatched by the red-hot Buccaneers last week, but they are a competitive squad that defeated the Chiefs a couple of weeks ago. This line stuck out to me immediately, and I'm going with the upset.
The pick: Raiders 28-24
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Packers -7
The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to covering the spread, as they are 5-1 this season. Their only loss came against the Buccaneers, and they are 5-0 against the spread vs. teams that are .500 or worse. Green Bay defeated Minnesota by a score of 43-34 in Week 1, and those 77 combined points were the fourth-most scored in a game this season. Since the start of last season, Green bay is tied with Kansas City for the best cover percentage in the NFL, and is 7-3 against the spread as a home favorite. I'm going to take them again this week, but I'm leaning towards the Under this time.
The pick: Packers 31-21
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Saints -4
Wow, it was extremely tough to watch Nick Foles and this Bears offense against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. Chicago's defense even scored more points than the offense did! The Saints have won and covered the last five games in this series against the Bears, and that 5-0 against-the-spread record is their best vs. any team during that span. New Orleans hasn't covered the spread in a couple of weeks, but if Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas return to the lineup on Sunday, the Saints should have no problem with this team.
The pick: Saints 27-17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Point spread: Buccaneers -10.5
This is the second-largest spread of the week, but I still think I'm going to lay the points with the Bucs. Both the Buccaneers and Giants are 4-3 against the spread this year, but the Giants have yet to cover the spread at home this season. Over the last three seasons, the Giants have the worst cover percentage at home (17 percent) and are just 1-12 against the spread as a home underdog. Tom Brady is on an absolute roll right now, and accounted for five total touchdowns against the Raiders last week. The Buccaneers have beaten two good teams by at least 25 points over the past two weeks, so I'm not too afraid to say they can beat Daniel Jones and the Giants by double digits.
The pick: Buccaneers 31-13
Other Week 8 picks
Panthers (-2.5) 26-23 over Falcons
Chiefs (-19.5) 35-10 over Jets
Ravens 30-27 over Steelers (+4)
Bills (-3.5) 23-17 over Patriots
Rams 27-26 over Dolphins (+3.5)
Lions (+2.5) 23-20 over Colts
Chargers (-3) 31-27 over Broncos
Seahawks (-2.5) 32-25 over 49ers
Eagles (-8.5) over Cowboys
