Two NFC South teams sitting at 2-1 look to get their third win on the season in Week 4 as the New Orleans Saints host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. The home team is looking to rebound from an 18-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers. The Buccaneers are also coming off of a Week 3 loss, getting upended by the Philadelphia Eagles 25-11 on Monday night.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at the Caesars Superdome. New Orleans is favored by 3.5 points in the latest Buccaneers vs. Saints odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 40. Before making any Saints vs. Buccaneers picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the computer simulation model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Saints vs. Bucs and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 4 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bucs vs. Saints

  • Saints vs. Buccaneers spread: Saints -3.5
  • Saints vs. Buccaneers over/under: 40 points
  • Saints vs. Buccaneers money line: Saints -184, Buccaneers +155
  • Saints vs. Buccaneers picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Saints vs. Buccaneers live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Head coach Todd Bowles is one of the top defensive minds in the NFL and he has the Buccaneers playing well on that side of the ball. Tampa Bay is among the league leaders in creating turnovers, entering this matchup with seven takeaways (third most in the NFL). The Bucs allow 19.7 points and 380.3 total yards per game.

Veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield has been efficient, playing mostly mistake-free football through three weeks. The former No. 1 overall pick has completed 66.7% of his pass attempts for 636 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. Mayfield's top target has been Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans, who has 17 catches for 297 yards and three TDs. See which team to pick here.

Why the Saints can cover

The Saints are set to get an explosive offensive weapon back in their lineup with All-Pro running back Alvin Kamara playing his first game since being suspended the first three games of the season. Kamara ranks third on the Saints all-time rushing list with 5,135 yards. He also enters Sunday's showdown with 8,888 career total offensive yards and 71 career touchdowns. 

The Saints' defense has also given up just 3.9 yards per carry, which isn't so great for a Bucs team that didn't have an established run game in their Week 3 loss. New Orleans has also dominated this rivalry over the years, winning seven of the last 10 meetings against Tampa Bay.  See which team to pick here.

How to make Buccaneers vs. Saints picks

The model has simulated Saints vs. Buccaneers 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Under on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the model's Saints vs. Buccaneers pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Saints vs. Buccaneers, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Buccaneers vs. Saints spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 167-117 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.