No. 11 Baylor will try to get back on track when it travels to TCU on Monday night in a meeting between teams tied for fourth place in the Big 12 standings. The Bears (19-8, 8-6 Big 12) are coming off back-to-back losses against ranked opponents, including an 82-76 setback against No. 2 Houston in overtime on Saturday. TCU (19-8, 8-6) has won three of its last four games, bouncing back from an 82-81 loss at No. 23 Texas Tech with a 75-57 win over Cincinnati. These teams met last month in one of the best games of the college basketball season, as TCU notched a 105-102 win in triple overtime on the road. 

Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on Monday at Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena. TCU is favored by 2.5 points in the latest TCU vs. Baylor odds, while the over/under is 148 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Baylor vs. TCU picks, you'll want to see the NCAA Basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 16 of the 2023-24 season on a 136-89 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $2,500 for $100 players. It is also off to a sizzling 25-13 start on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Baylor vs. TCU. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines for the game:

  • TCU vs. Baylor spread: TCU -2.5
  • TCU vs. Baylor over/under: 148 points
  • TCU vs. Baylor money line: TCU -146, Baylor +122
  • TCU vs. Baylor picks: See picks here

Why TCU can cover

TCU has won three of its last four games, including an impressive 75-57 win over Cincinnati on Saturday as a 5-point favorite. Backup Jakobe Coles scored 11 of his 18 points before halftime, while Emanuel Miller also scored 18 points. The Horned Frogs have already picked up one win over the Bears this season, springing the upset in triple overtime as 4.5-point underdogs.  

Senior guard Jameer Nelson Jr. poured in 30 points on 11 of 18 shooting off the bench, including the go-ahead shot in the third overtime. Miller, a senior forward, leads TCU with 16.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, while senior guard Micah Peavy is adding 11.3 points and 5.0 boards. The Horned Frogs have covered the spread in four of their last five games, and they are 13-2 in their last 15 home games. 

Why Baylor can cover

Baylor has dominated this head-to-head series over the past decade, winning 14 of the last 20 meetings. The Bears are 12-6 against the spread in the last 18 meetings, and they have covered in nine of their last 11 trips to TCU. They are in desperate need of a road win after losing a pair of close games against ranked teams last week. 

The Bears climbed out of an early hole against No. 2 Houston on Saturday, forcing overtime before eventually losing by six points. Freshman guard Ja'Kobe Walter leads Baylor with 14.7 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, while senior guard RayJ Dennis is adding 13.4 points, 6.6 assists and 3.7 rebounds. Senior forward Jalen Bridges is also in double figures with 11.1 points per game. See which team to pick here. 

How to make TCU vs. Baylor picks

The model has simulated Baylor vs. TCU 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins TCU vs. Baylor, and which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 139-94 roll on its top-ranked college basketball picks, and find out.