The preseason is in full swing with every team playing at least one game. Now, we get to see the influence it has on Average Draft Position.
For example, some guys who performed well in their first preseason game or got good reports are seeing their ADP rise on CBS Sports. Those guys include Christian McCaffrey, Spencer Ware, Dalvin Cook, Rob Kelley, Terrance West, Thomas Rawls, Kelvin Benjamin, Tyreek Hill and Robby Anderson. You can see their progress indicated by the green arrows pointing up.
Lions rookie receiver Kenny Golladay, who put on a show in his NFL debut against the Colts on Sunday, doesn't have an ADP yet, but you can bet that will change in a hurry. Golladay had three catches for 53 yards and two touchdowns on four targets, and he's going to become one of the best late-round targets in all leagues. More on him later.
On the down side, players who struggled in the first preseason game or have been in the news recently for the wrong reasons like injuries, trades or suspensions are seeing their ADP decline, which is indicated by the red arrows. Those guys include Andrew Luck, Tyrod Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Gillislee, Paul Perkins, Bilal Powell, Eddie Lacy, Samaje Perine, Sammy Watkins, Donte Moncrief and Corey Davis.
We're going to look at some players who are going too soon based on their ADP and others who are great value picks. Remember, ADP will change daily as more leagues start drafting. But using ADP is a great tool to help prepare for your Fantasy league, so click around on the CBS Sports ADP page as much as possible to get ready for your Draft Day.
Quarterbacks
Going too soon: Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Cam Newton
Ryan was amazing last year in winning the NFL MVP and leading the Falcons to the Super Bowl, but this ADP is ridiculous. He's being drafted in Round 2, which could indicate two-quarterback leagues, but he's going ahead of Drew Brees. I hope that changes in a hurry. Ryan will have some negative regression this year after his career season in 2016, but he's still a solid No. 1 Fantasy quarterback and a potential top-five player at his position. But the earliest he should be drafted is as the No. 4 quarterback behind Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Brees.
I like Winston as a breakout candidate this year. And in last week's ADP review, which used the ADP from Fantasy Pros, we had Winston as a good value pick because he was being selected as the No. 12 quarterback at No. 87 overall. But after a week where he was featured on HBO's Hard Knocks, we could see Winston's ADP get out of control, which could be the case here. He's not worth drafting in Round 5 unless it's a two-quarterback league.
Newton is still fighting his way back from offseason shoulder surgery, and the hope would be his missed practice time would drive down his ADP. At the right price, I'd buy into Newton as a bounce-back candidate given his track record. But there's no way I'm drafting Newton in Round 5, and that might even include two-quarterback leagues. If he falls to you on Draft Day after Round 7 or 8, he's worth drafting, but please don't reach for him at this price.
Great value: Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota, Philip Rivers
I hope Cousins stays in this range because he could easily be a top-five quarterback for the second year in a row. His receiving corps is banged up now with Jordan Reed (toe), Jamison Crowder (hamstring) and Josh Doctson (hamstring) all missing practice time, but when healthy this could be among the best groups in the NFL when you add in Terrelle Pryor and Chris Thompson. Cousins is the perfect quarterback to wait for on Draft Day.
Like Winston, Mariota is one of my favorite breakout candidates this year, but he's clearly not getting the same hype given his ADP. I'd be shocked if Mariota wasn't a top-10 quarterback this season after getting Eric Decker, Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor to go with Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews. Along with his rushing prowess behind a great offensive line, Mariota should destroy this ADP if he stays in this range.
Always underappreciated, Rivers again comes in outside the top-12 quarterbacks in ADP, but he should once again finish as a No. 1 option when the season is over. With Keenan Allen back from last year's torn ACL and hopefully Mike Williams (back) healthy, this should be the best receiving corps of Rivers' career. He's a steal at this ADP, and you should expect another season of around 4,300 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.
Running backs
Going too soon: Ezekiel Elliott, Marshawn Lynch, Mark Ingram, Ty Montgomery
It has only been one weekend since the NFL suspended Elliott six games for violating the league's personal conduct policy, so we don't know where his ADP will settle, including his expected appeal. But until we know exactly how many games he will miss, it's hard to consider him a first-round pick and maybe not even a second-round selection. His ADP is sliding, and it should continue to fall until more news is known.
Lynch was mentioned in this column last week, and he will likely be a weekly fixture here until his ADP starts to come down. He can definitely finish as a solid No. 2 Fantasy running back, but the third round is too high. There are receivers and better running backs you can find in this spot -- including Isaiah Crowell going as the next running back off the board and nearly a round later -- and I'm not drafting Lynch until around Round 5. That means I likely won't get him, but I'm OK with that if this is his ADP.
Montgomery should open the season as the starter for the Packers, but he will face constant competition from rookie Jamaal Williams. I'd rather take Williams at No. 134 overall given the value of his ADP, and Montgomery fumbled in his first preseason game. Montgomery's ADP is too high in the fourth round since there's no guarantee he will dominate touches this season, and Montgomery could be in trouble if he continues to fumble.
We expect Devonta Freeman to be fine after being placed in the concussion protocol following the first preseason game, but the only way Coleman should be drafted before Round 6 is if Freeman is expected to be out for an extended period of time in the regular season. Coleman was great last year and is one of the rare backup running backs who has standalone value in any format. But he shouldn't be drafted as a top-20 running back or in Round 4.
Great value: C.J. Anderson, Ameer Abdullah, Rob Kelley, Thomas Rawls
If Anderson is healthy, he could easily finish the season as a top-20 running back and potentially a No. 1 option, and he's healthy coming into the year. Jamaal Charles could play a prominent role for the Broncos, and Denver also has Devontae Booker and De'Angelo Henderson, who could take away work. But Charles is 30 and has struggled with knee problems the past two years, Booker is questionable for the start of the season after wrist surgery and Henderson is a rookie. Anderson's role is safe.
Abdullah still has plenty to prove after an inconsistent rookie season in 2015 and missing 14 games last year due to a foot injury. But the Lions want to make him their featured back with the hope of giving him 200 carries. and he definitely has the potential to be a high-end No. 2 Fantasy running back if that happens. He'll lose some passing-down work to Theo Riddick and potentially goal-line chances to Zach Zenner, but Abdullah will be tremendous value if he remains at this ADP.
It's clear that Kelley will open the season as the No. 1 running back for the Redskins, and he has a good chance to keep the job if Perine continues to struggle, especially with a poor performance in the first preseason game. Perine actually has a higher ADP by one spot, but that will change, with Kelley flying past him. Kelley could easily finish the season as a No. 2 running back, so this is a great value pick in any format.
In Seattle's first preseason game, Rawls worked with the starters while Lacy was in with the second-team offense. That's been consistent with most of the practice reports. While Lacy could move ahead of Rawls as early as this week, it's clear that Lacy should not be drafted 39 spots ahead of Rawls. We'll see Lacy start to fall, but Rawls could rise to a spot that makes him a bad selection. However, right now he's a steal at this price.
Wide receivers
Going too soon: Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry, Brandon Marshall, Emmanuel Sanders
Edelman and Brandin Cooks (No. 14 WR at No. 43 overall) are being drafted too soon, especially Edelman. Both are going to take a hit with all the mouths to feed in New England, especially with Rob Gronkowski back at 100 percent from last year's back injury. Edelman is more of a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues, and it is ridiculous that he's anywhere close to the third round. Cooks at least makes more sense in Round 4.
Landry loses value with Ryan Tannehill (knee) being lost for the season and replaced by Jay Cutler. It's not like Landry will be a total bust, but it's hard to consider him a top-20 receiver on Draft Day, even in PPR. Cutler will look to push the ball downfield more than Tannehill, and that's not exactly Landry's forte. He also loses value because of his lack of touchdowns with 13 through three seasons. Maybe he has a breakout campaign in a contract year, but he's a little risky in Round 4 with Cutler.
The good news for Marshall is he's been exceptional the past two times he switched teams when he went from Miami to Chicago in 2012 and Chicago to the Jets in 2015. But he's 33 now and has never been the No. 2 option in the passing game, which will happen this year with Odell Beckham. I don't mind Marshall as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but there's no way he should be drafted as the No. 20 receiver off the board in any format.
We'll see who wins the quarterback battle in Denver, and Paxton Lynch will help Sanders and Demaryius Thomas more than Trevor Siemian. While Sanders posted solid total numbers last season, his week-to-week consistency was terrible. I don't mind him as the No. 27 receiver off the board, especially in PPR, but there are plenty of receivers being drafted after him that I like better, including Martavis Bryant, Golden Tate, Stefon Diggs, Willie Snead and Crowder. I also don't want Sanders in Round 6.
Great value: Martavis Bryant, Willie Snead, Jamison Crowder, Kenny Golladay
Bryant is on track to play all season in 2017 after being suspended for 2016, and he could emerge as a top-20 Fantasy receiver this year. He's scored 14 touchdowns in 21 career games, and he's proven to be an explosive playmaker whenever he's been on the field. I consider Bryant a No. 2 Fantasy receiver on Draft Day, and I would draft him as early as Round 5. If his ADP stays at this spot, you should be thrilled if you get him in Round 7.
Snead has one of the best situations of any player this year. There's an opening to contribute in a bigger role with Cooks gone, he's in a contract year and it's also his third season in the NFL. He's also coming off an injury-plagued season in 2016 when he battled a toe problem from Week 2 on. Prior to getting hurt, Snead had 14 catches for 226 yards and two touchdowns on 17 targets in his first two games. It's easy to draft Snead if he falls to Round 8, and he should destroy this ADP.
Crowder is dealing with a hamstring injury, which could lower his ADP, but not this much. He has a chance to be the No. 1 receiver for the Redskins and a potential top-15 Fantasy receiver this season. He's in his third year in the NFL, which should lead to a breakdown campaign, and you're stealing him if he's still there in Round 8. I target Crowder in every league, and he's candidate for 80-plus catches, 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns as long as he's healthy.
His ADP will likely settle somewhere close to Round 10 if nothing else of significance happens this preseason, but he could continue to rise with another outstanding performance like we saw against the Colts. Granted, he was playing against backup defenders, but the Lions receiving corps is nothing special behind Tate. Golladay has the chance to lead Detroit in touchdowns with seven or eight, and if he can approach 60 catches and 800 yards, any late-round pick is worth it.
Tight ends
Going too soon: Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker, Eric Ebron
Olsen deserves to be drafted as a top-five tight end, but he should not be No. 2 at the position behind Rob Gronkowski. I'd rather have Travis Kelce, and there's also more upside with Reed and Jimmy Graham. Olsen is fine with a pick in the fourth round, but you should be able to get him in Round 5. If someone else wants to draft Olsen ahead of Kelce, Reed or Graham then let that happen, and you can get Graham in Round 6 based on his ADP.
Walker is still worth drafting as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end, but you should settle for him on Draft Day instead of selecting him in Round 6 based on his ADP. The Titans have a loaded receiving corps now, and Walker's stats declined from 2015 to 2016 with just the addition of Matthews. Decker could hurt Walker's touchdown totals, and it's hard to see his catches and yards going up. I'm running away from Walker if I have to draft him at this spot.
Ebron has been dealing with a hamstring injury, but that hasn't impacted his ADP in a negative way if he's still being drafted as No. 1 tight end. It's not a bad spot to draft him in Round 10, but he might struggle to have the breakout season we're hoping for if Golladay is for real. I'd rather have Jack Doyle at his ADP, and Ebron is someone I'll settle for instead of target with a late-round pick.
Good value: Jimmy Graham, Hunter Henry, Jack Doyle
Graham going behind Walker is somewhat laughable, and I expect that to change. I'd also like to see Graham ahead of Olsen since there's more upside for him this season. It was remarkable what Graham was able to do in 2016 when he came back from a devastating knee injury in 2015 and performed at a high level. He's finally back at 100 percent, and he should be in line for another outstanding campaign. Graham in Round 6 would be one of the best steals on Draft Day if his ADP remains at this spot.
Henry is going to have to contend with Antonio Gates, as well as a loaded receiving corps, but the Chargers plan to increase his targets, which should lead to more production. If he can get close to 60 catches and 700 yards while still scoring close to eight touchdowns, he'll have the chance to outperform his ADP. I'm expecting that to happen since he's one of the best young players at any position coming into this year.
Luck's health is obviously a big part of Doyle's Fantasy outlook this season, as well as all the Colts receivers, but Luck is expected to be ready early in the year even if he's not on the field for Week 1. But even with Luck potentially sidelined, there's no reason Doyle should be the No. 15 tight end off the board. He has top-10 potential, and Luck's track record of leaning on his tight ends is worth buying into with Doyle. I would draft him ahead of Walker and Ebron this year.
