The rule we generally follow at CBS is a roster rate of 65% or lower for waiver wire guys. We don't want to spend too much time on guys who are unavailable to the vast majority of you. But the later we get in the season the less roster rate tells us. And we have some really important backs who are available in 20-to-35% of leagues. Maybe I can help you with whether or not to start them if they're already rostered. If they aren't go get them
Zach Charbonnet is the most interesting. The rookie is still available in 30% of leagues and despite a terrible matchup against the 49ers, he projects as a top-15 back on Thanksgiving against the 49ers. Charbonnet saw 22 touches and totaled 15.9 PPR Fantasy points in Week 11 despite not scoring a TD. I am adding Charbonnet anywhere he's available and starting him in most instances.
A.J. Dillon is available in 24% of league and likely starting against the Lions this week due to Aaron Jones' injury. I am less enthused about Dillon, though I'd still call him a must-roster and borderline RB2 in another tough matchup. Dillon has at least 15 touches in each of his last two games, and last week was his third game with at least three targets. I wouldn't expect good efficiency, but 12 PPR Fantasy points certainly seems reasonable.
Ty Chandler is the other guy. He is less appealing than Charbonnet and Dillon, but it's much easier to pass against the Bears than run against them and Chandler looks to be the primary pass-catching back for Minnesota. There is also an outside shot that Mattison finally fumbles enough to lose his job and Chandler starts seeing 15-to-20 touches regularly. He's anothr must-add, but he only projects as a flex this week.
Consider A.J. Dillon a No. 2 running back without Aaron Jones.
RB Preview
Numbers to know
83.1% -- Kyren Williams played 83.1% of the Rams offensive snaps before his injury. No back has played a higher rate this season.
60.9 -- Per fantasypoints.com, Rachaad White's 60.9 expected Fantasy points over the last three weeks is tied with Austin Ekeler for the highest amongst running backs since Week 9. His role is fantastic.
2.05 -- D'Andre Swift leads all running backs with 2.05 yards before contact per rush.
4.44 -- Jaylen Warren's 4.44 yards after contact per rush leads the NFL and is a full yard and a half better than Najee Harris.
26.9% -- Khalil Herbert's 26.9% avoid rate is second only to Warren.
11.6 -- Brian Robinson's 11.6 yards per reception leads all running backs with at least 30 targets this season.
1.74 -- Breece Hall ranks third amongst running backs at 1.74 yards per route run. His receiving production is saving his season.
If you need a Week 12 flex, you should be looking to the wide receiver waiver wire. If you need an RB2, Elliott is the best option available in more than a third of leagues. Elliott had 88 total yards and 10.8 PPR Fantasy points in Week 10 and should have fresh legs coming off a bye. The Patriots should be able to win this game on the ground against Tommy DeVito and the Giants. The last time the Patriots held an offense below 20 points was Week 3, when Elliott ran the ball 16 times for 80 yards. That's the kind of game script you're hoping for.
If De'Von Achane is out there is a chance that Wilson sees 10-plus touches on Black Friday against the Jets. It's a bad matchup and Wilson hasn't been particularly good on limited touches this season, but this is how slim the pickings are at running back in Week 12.
Johnson should be the No. 2 behind Khalil Herbert once again assuming D'Onta Foreman misses Week 12. His role in the passing game should return as he sees 10-to-12 touches on Monday night. Running backs have had much more success through the air than on the ground against the Vikings. They've allowed 36 receptions to running backs over the last four games.
Mitchell is fully healthy and back in his RB2 position in San Francisco. If something happens to McCaffrey during the Fantasy playoffs, Mitchell will be a league winner. He's exactly the type of player first and second place teams should be stashing.
Swift is my second-highest projected back on the main slate, just 0.2 FanDuel points behind Alvin Kamara. However, he's priced $1,500 cheaper than Kamara. I don't fear the matchup against the Bills in what I expect to be a positive game script. It's not often you can get one of the elite backs on a slate at this kind of discount.
I admit I may be catching a falling knife here. Conner's production has lagged since he returned from IR and the Cardinals are still a bad team. Still, he's been an excellent runner this season and he saw a little bit of work in the passing game last week. I still believe there's 20-touch and 20-Fantasy point upside here. The nice thing is, you'll have very little company if he pays off.
RB Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 12 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 12. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
