What a wild ride Week 4 was. Most of the backup quarterbacks from Week 3 fell flat on their faces while another starting quarterback gave way to a rookie, who looked anything but impressive. The Patriots won again, but in a way that helped almost no one in Fantasy. The Chiefs won too, but Patrick Mahomes didn't throw any touchdown passes. Wayne Gallman and Ronald Jones looked awesome, while Odell Beckham and DeAndre Hopkins gave us almost nothing. We took a look at from Week 4 Sunday and gave an as well, if you need to catch up.
For the most part it's best not to overreact to weeks like this one. But we can't totally ignore them either. That's exactly why we've got Believe It or Not to help sort through it all. Once again, I've included Twitter polls for each topic, so you can check out public perception, too.
Believe it or Not: Ronald Jones will be a starter in Fantasy rest of season.
As far as Fantasy teases go, Jones has been as enticing as anyone that isn't already universally owned. He shined in the second half of Week 1, fizzled in Week 2, topped 120 yards in Week 3 and scored a touchdown in Week 4. As bad as this Buccaneer offense looked early in the year they have clearly started to gel under Bruce Arians. A big part of that is increased usage for Jones.
He's clearly the most talented back in Tampa Bay and it's just a matter of time before Arians starts giving him more early work as well. This is a very good offense that's only going to get better and you're going to want to start their No. 1 running back.
You guys ready for some Believe It or Not? Of course you are.— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 30, 2019
Ronald Jones will be a starter in Fantasy rest of season.
Verdict: Believe it.
Forget about Week 2 for a second. Jones got dinged up and Peyton Barber got hot while Jones was getting checked out. Let's talk about the three games Jones has been healthy. In those three games he's averaged 16.3 touches and 95.3 yards per game. That's absolutely someone you want to start in just about any league. Jones does have some risk because of Dare Ogunbowale's role in the passing game, but this team doesn't look like one that's going to find itself chasing the score often. Even if Arians insists Barber is still his starter, Jones should be yours.
Believe it or Not: The Kliff Kingsbury experiment is a failure for Fantasy.
Oh what could have been. Kingsbury was supposed to change football with aggressive playcalling and no-huddle offense. He had the perfect quarterback in Kyler Murray, to carry out his plan. But the whole thing is falling on its face.
The Cardinals have scored 74 points in four games, including one that essentially went five quarters. Murray has been a Fantasy bust, David Johnson has looked very much like his inefficient 2018 self, and the wide receivers have been wildly inconsistent. There's still plenty of talent at the skill positions, but it's clear Kingsbury's offense can't neutralize the pass rush like it did in college. Until the Cardinals get someone to block, they're going to be a bad offense.
The Kliff Kingsbury experiment is a failure for Fantasy.— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 30, 2019
Verdict: Don't believe it.
Everything above is mostly true. So far. It's been four games.
I'm still holding or buying Murray and Johnson. I'm also looking to acquire Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk (depending on his health). Why? Take a look at their schedule. Over the next three weeks they face the Bengals, Falcons, and Giants. If this offense is ever going to click, it will be against one of these three defenses.
Believe it or Not: Now is the time to sell Wayne Gallman.
Sunday was a long day for anyone who doubted Gallman in Week 4. It was the perfect case study in one of my favorite Fantasy principles: volume over everything. Gallman wasn't particularly efficient, but he touched the ball 24 times so it really didn't matter. He turned those 24 touches into 118 yards and two touchdowns against one of the worst teams in football. This was wonderful for anyone who started him, but now it's time to profit. You should sell Gallman because his value will never be higher.
Now is the time to sell Wayne Gallman— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 30, 2019
Verdict: Believe it.
Gallman's shelf life is obvious. The moment Saquon Barkley returns, he's useless. That's likely at least five weeks away, but that doesn't mean you'll get five more weeks of Sunday's production. In the next two weeks he faces the Vikings and the Patriots. He'll be a flex at best those two weeks. While the schedule does get easier after New England, you're then just a month away from the Giants bye week, which seems like the longest Gallman could be the starter.
This week, people will look at Gallman as a workhorse back on an improving offense with six weeks of production in front of him. His value is only going to depreciate from here, so see what you can get.
Believe it or Not: None of the Patriots running backs are trustworthy.
Is this really even something we need to say anymore? Apparently it is. Sony Michel is averaging fewer than three yards per carry and is only good when he scores a touchdown. James White is fine in PPR, but he only got one carry this week. Rex Burkhead was even worse, he only saw one touch, probably because he's hurt. Once again, the Patriots have a handful of running backs that are very useful to them...but not to Fantasy players.
None of the Patriots running backs are trustworthy.— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 30, 2019
Verdict: Believe it.
One of the Patriots running backs did score in Week 4. It was Brandon Bolden. Perfect.
I'd like to say that an injury could clear this backfield up, but if anyone misses significant time, I just assume Damien Harris would come in and fill the void. This Patriots offensive line isn't great and without James Develin neither is the running game. As long as they're using three of four backs you can't trust any of them as a starter.
Believe it or Not: All of the Chiefs receivers are boom-or-bust flexes until Tyreek Hill returns.
I was uncomfortable saying for a second week in a row that you shouldn't feel comfortable starting Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. But this week it proved true. What didn't prove true? The idea that Sammy Watkins was a top-five wide receiver.
Shockingly, none of the Chiefs receivers were good on Sunday against the Lions. While that won't be the norm, it does highlight a problem for all of these guys. As good as Patrick Mahomes is, he's not good enough to consistently support three startable receivers, a top-three tight end, and a must-start running back.
All of the Chiefs receivers are boom-or-bust flexes until Tyreek Hill returns.— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 30, 2019
Verdict: Don't believe it.
It's absolutely true that Robinson and Hardman should be viewed this way as long as they're getting five or six targets a week. But Watkins has seen 27 targets over the past three weeks. He had a touchdown punched out in Detroit. I can't imagine he's going to continue to be this disappointing in Fantasy. I'm starting Watkins everywhere in Week 5 and ranking him as a top-10 wide receiver, maybe higher. Both Robinson and Hardman will remain borderline flex options with enormous upside.