Going into Wednesday's schedule, the Diamondbacks are tied with the Rockies for first place in the NL West. They've also backed up that status with a plus-82 run differential, the fourth-best mark in the National League. 

Despite all that, the SportsLine Projection Model (@SportsLine on Twitter) gives the Snakes just a 40.2 percent chance of making the postseason. To put that in context, in the NL the Cubs, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Brewers all have higher playoff percentages. In other words, the projections right now expect the D-Backs to be left out of the postseason fray. 

Part of what's going on is that the Dodgers project very well, thanks in part to their NL-best run differential. Another factor is surely the Diamondbacks' tough remaining schedule. Here's how it breaks down:

  • at Giants (one game)
  • at Dodgers (4)
  • Padres (2)
  • Braves (4)
  • at Rockies (4)
  • at Astros (3)
  • Cubs (3)
  • Rockies (3)
  • Dodgers (3)
  • at Padres (3)

So of they're remaining 30 games, 24 come against teams presently with winning records, and 13 are against the Astros, Cubs, and Dodgers. Overall, that comes to an average opponents' winning percentage of .535 -- that's basically playing a team that's somewhere between the Phillies and Brewers in all games left on the schedule. That makes for the toughest remaining schedule in all of baseball, and it's not an especially close race. 

Almost every projection system out there still favors the Dodgers to prevail in the NL West for a sixth straight season. The Rockies' underlying fundamentals aren't as strong as might think, but for the D-Backs the issue is in large measure their remaining docket of games. If Torey Lovullo's club winds up returning to the postseason, they'll have earned it down the stretch. For now, though, the odds are against that happening.