To the amazement of all, the Cubs in 2016 won the World Series for the first time since 1908. In doing so, they snuffed out the most famous and enduring title drought in major sports history. The Cubs' success in doing so -- and having done so at the expense of the Indians, who haven't won the belt and the title since 1948 -- raises the matter of other title-less streaks in baseball.
Beyond a mere listing of those streaks, the 2016 Cubs make us wonder when said streaks might reasonably end. To begin to answer that question, let's take a look at the seven current MLB title droughts that have spanned at least 40 years and offer up a best guess as to when that team's next best chance at pulling a 2016 Cubs on the forces of history might occur. In descending order of drought length:
Cleveland Indians: 68 years and counting
As noted above, the Indians haven't hoisted the trophy since 1948. They of course came agonizingly close this season, which probably serves to make that drought feel even longer.
However, as my colleague Mike Axisa pointed out, the Indians are well-positioned to contend in 2017 and beyond. They have a young cornerstone in Francisco Lindor, that dominant-when-healthy rotation is under team control, and their core veteran pieces are all coming back (including Michael Brantley).
The Indians will open the 2017 season as the solid favorites in the AL Central, and they profile as threats to win the World Series in each of the next four or five seasons. Your window isn't closing for a while, Tribe fans.
Best-case ETA: 2017
Texas Rangers: 56 years and counting
The Rangers won the pennant in 2010 and 2011, but they're one of eight franchises never to win the World Series. Since they date back to 1961 (as the second iteration of the Washington Senators), that makes for a 56-year drought.
In the here and now, the Rangers are back-to-back AL West champs, to they're in contending mode. They won 95 games this past season, but underlying indicators suggest their base-line is closer to that of an 85-win team. So they're probably in for some regression in 2017.
That said, they'll have Jonathan Lucroy for a full season, and Yu Darvish, provided he stays healthy, will be fixture at the front of the rotation. There's also hope for skills growth from young hitters like Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo, and Rougned Odor. Adrian Beltre and Cole Hamels are still in the fold.
The Rangers do need to add some rotation depth this offseason, and the free agent market isn't exactly brimming with ideal solutions. After next season, Lucroy and Darvish are eligible for free agency. Consider 2017 their best chance with some uncertainty beyond that.
Best-case ETA: 2017
Houston Astros: 55 years and counting
The Astros have one pennant (2005) in their trophy case, but they've never won it all. The good news is that they're in a good spot for 2017 and beyond.
Jose Altuve isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2019 season, and Carlos Correa will be under team control for even longer than that. The same goes for George Springer and, of course, Alex Bregman. That's a championship core right there.
The Astros need rotation depth and some left-handed power, but that's not lost on the front office. Provided the Astros develop or acquire the complementary pieces needed, they have a realistic shot at winning the World Series for the first time in franchise history at some point over the handful seasons. I'll say 2018 is the sweet spot.
Best-case ETA: 2018
Milwaukee Brewers: 48 years and counting
The Brewers haven't won the pennant since '82 (the only pennant in franchise history) and have never won the World Series. They're just beginning to emerge from what's looking like a successful rebuilding process.
Presently in the fold are productive and or high-ceiling young talents like Orlando Arcia, Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Jacob Nottingham, Luis Ortiz, and ... well, believe it or not we could go on. Not all of those names are going to hit, and additional development time is needed.
The Brewers, though, are working their way toward a contending major-league roster. As well, they have a great deal of payroll flexibility starting after next season (especially if they're able to move Ryan Braun's contract), which could make them players on the stronger free agent markets to come. I'll say the Brewers are better in 2017, a winning team in 2018, and viable championship contenders in 2019
Best-case ETA: 2019
San Diego Padres: 48 years and counting
The Pads have two pennants but have never won it all. A.J. Preller's puzzling first offseason as GM set the organization back significantly, but he's recouped a lot of young talent via trades and especially international signings. That said, we're mostly talking about raw talents in the lower rungs -- i.e., a long way from making an impact at the highest level.
Right now, you could argue that the Padres have the worst major-league roster in baseball, and it's going to take some time to turn that over. It says here that the Padres won't have legitimate designs on the World Series before 2020, and by that time a new front office will be in place.
Best-case ETA: 2020
Washington Nationals: 48 years and counting
Here's a drought we could see end in 2017. The Nats trace their roots back to the Montreal Expos, of course, and they're one of two franchises that's never even made a World Series appearance.
They've got the talent in place, though. Bryce Harper is back and perhaps a healthier 2017 will yield another MVP-caliber season (that wasn't the case in 2016, even though the Nats won the NL East title with relative ease). Max Scherzer may win the NL Cy Young award this year, and he'll be back. Ditto for Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Trea Turner, and MVP candidate Daniel Murphy. Lucas Giolito may be ready to be a force in the rotation.
How long will their window be open? The Nationals have Harper under control for just the next two seasons, and he seems bent on testing the market. Consider 2017 and 2018 the Nats' best chance.
Best-case ETA: 2017
Seattle Mariners: 40 years and counting
The M's are the other club never to reach the World Series, and they haven't managed a postseason appearance since 2001. They made good strides in 2016, as they won 86 games and remained in contention for a wild card spot until the final day of the regular season. That said, the Mariners this year had one of the AL's oldest rosters, and the farm system is presently in a pretty poor state.
With a core of Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, and a declining Felix Hernandez, relevance in 2017 is possible and thus so is a title. If Taijuan Walker and James Paxton make strides, then 2017 could indeed yield a return to the playoffs.
However, that window isn't going to remain open long thanks to the age of some of those key position players. Give the M's a puncher's chance in 2017 but less than that for a long time after.
Best-case (only-case?) ETA: 2017
