The Dallas Mavericks visit the Golden State Warriors for a highly-anticipated game on Saturday evening. The Mavericks are 28-25 overall and 3-1 in the last four games. The Warriors are 26-26 overall with an impressive 19-6 home record. Draymond Green (calf), Klay Thompson (illness) and Patrick Baldwin Jr. (illness) are listed as questionable for Golden State, with Stephen Curry (leg) listed as probable. Luka Doncic (heel), Maxi Kleber (hamstring), Christian Wood (thumb) and Davis Bertans (calf) are out for Dallas, with Spencer Dinwiddie (calf) listed as questionable.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 10-point favorite at home for this 8:30 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 226 in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds. Before making any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 49-23 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Mavs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavs vs. Warriors:

  • Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -10
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors over/under: 226 points
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -480, Mavericks +360
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 8-17 against the spread in road games
  • GSW: The Warriors are 15-9-1 against the spread in home games
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Mavericks can cover

The Mavericks are in the top eight of the NBA in offensive efficiency this season, scoring 115.1 points per 100 possessions. Dallas averages the second-most free throw attempts (26.4 per game) in the league, and the Mavericks are in the top three in turnover rate (12.5%) and live-ball turnovers (6.2 per game). The Mavericks are above-average in 3-point shooting, making more than 36% of attempts, and Golden State is last in the league in free throw prevention (26.1 attempts allowed per game) on defense. 

On the opposite end, Dallas is allowing fewer 3-pointers (11.1 per game) than any NBA team this season, and the Mavericks are in the top 10 of the league in assist prevention. Golden State has a sky-high turnover rate of 16.0%, and the Warriors are last in the NBA in creating only 20.6 free throw attempts per game.

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State is a different team at Chase Center this season, posting excellent results in San Francisco. The Warriors are 19-6 at home in 2022-23, out-scoring opponents by nearly six points per 100 possessions. Golden State's defense is a big part of that success, giving up fewer than 1.09 points per possession, and opponents are shooting only 44.9% from the field and 32.1% from 3-point range at Chase Center. 

Over the full-season sample, the Warriors are also stout defensively, giving up 47% shooting and securing more than 72% of defensive rebounds. Golden State is opportunistic on defense, creating 14.8 turnovers per game, and opponents produce only 13.2 second-chance points per game against the Warriors. Dallas is dead-last in the NBA in assists, averaging fewer than 22 per game, and the Mavericks are also in the bottom three of the league with a meager 23.1% offensive rebound rate.

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 234 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.