With just two days to go before the 2024 NFL Draft, I'm doing something a little different in my next-to-last mock draft. CBS Sports' Pete Prisco has been doing this for years -- a mock draft on what teams should do -- and his '24 version came out Tuesday. It's a great idea because it gets you on the record, plus it gives fans an easy way to point out where you were criminally wrong. (In case you're wondering, here's my 2023 version.)
So here it is, what I think NFL teams should do on Thursday, during the first round of the draft. A sneak peak: five QBs come off the board in the first 12 picks (no trades, however!), and the first defensive player off the board is neither an edge rusher nor a cornerback. All told 10 offensive linemen go in the first round, and a team trades back up into the first round to get a wide receiver.
Added bonus: I included picks for teams that I had trading out of the first round, as well as those real-life teams that currently aren't selecting among the top 32 selections.
OK, let's get to it.
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc.
Round 1
2024 NFL Mock Draft
From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1, Pick 1
This hasn't changed since last August and I never understood why any other player was in the QB1 conversation these last 4-5 months. Williams is a special talent, and the Bears have done a good job of putting pieces in place to support him.
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Round 1, Pick 2
No player improved more over the last 12 months than Jayden Daniels. He has a big arm, throws with touch to all three levels and has the athleticism to rip off 50-yard runs and make it look easy.
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Round 1, Pick 3
This is important to remember: Drake Maye is just 21 years old, he's only played two full seasons at Carolina, and his best football is ahead of him. Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. are 23 and Bo Nix is 24. The point: None of those QBs were, at 21, what they are now. And Maye checks all the boxes when you're talking about the measurables. If the Patriots can be patient -- and that's a big if for any team in today's NFL -- he'll have a chance to be really good.
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Round 1, Pick 4
Marvin Harrison Jr. held his pro day 13 months ago, when I was at Ohio State to see C.J. Stroud and Harrison was running routes for him. NFL evaluators know how good he is and there was no need to run a 40 time during this pre-draft process. The Cardinals will likely consider trading down in real life but if I were a QB-needy team and the top three passers were off the board, I'd sit tight to see who falls to me. So for our purposes here, the Cards are taking Harrison Jr.
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Round 1, Pick 5
Nabers has Ja'Marr Chase-type potential from the moment he steps onto an NFL field (Chase had 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 21 TDs as a rookie) and while the Chargers might target offensive line here, they also have the 37th selection. Get arguably the best player in the draft at No. 5, and circle back for that OL early in Round 2.
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Round 1, Pick 6
The top two wideouts are off the board but this group is so deep that some teams think they're indistinguishable. I wouldn't take a QB here unless one of the top 3 fall, and if that means the Giants are rolling with Daniel Jones, get him some weapons who can consistently win on the outside. If no one improved their draft stock more than Jayden Daniels over the last year, Odunze is a close second.
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Round 1, Pick 7
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Round 1, Pick 8
The Falcons have needs at edge rusher but Murphy might be the most disruptive defender in this class. Take him here, and in a class where the pass rushers are deeper than the defensive linemen, circle back in Round 2 to find that edge player.
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Round 1, Pick 9
Verse is our No. 1 edge prospect and with the top 3 wide receivers already gone, the Bears do the smart thing and get a bookend to pass rusher Montez Sweat. Trading down will also be a consideration on Thursday, but again, if I'm a team looking for a QB, I'm not trading up at this point.
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Mock Trade from
New York Jets
Round 1, Pick 10
The Saints and Mickey Loomis have never been afraid to trade up and while I gave serious consideration to the Jets staying put and taking Fashanu here, I talked myself into moving down and continuing to build out the skill positions around Aaron Rodgers (more on that in a moment). For New Orleans, Trevor Penning hasn't worked out on the left side and it's not clear if right tackle Ryan Ramczyk will be healthy enough to play in '24. Fashanu has a chance to be a truly special player in 2-3 years.
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Round 1, Pick 11
Is this too high for McCarthy? Based on his tape, yeah, probably. But while he wasn't asked to do a lot in the Michigan offense, he was clinical on 3rd-and-6 or more last season -- I'm talking he completed 72.3% of his throws with an FBS-best 10.9 yards per attempt with 5 TDs and 0 INTs. To reiterate: McCarthy wasn't just throwing dump-offs, he was pushing the ball down the field and doing it with timing and accuracy. And in Minnesota, he'll be learning from Kevin O'Connell, who has a good track record with young QBs. It will also be important to let him sit for a season behind Sam Darnold before giving him the keys in 2025.
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Round 1, Pick 12
The teams I've spoken with think Penix Jr. would be a steal in the second round but aren't sure if he'll sneak into Round 1. I feel like he's too good to pass up in the middle of the round here, especially with Denver's glaring need at quarterback -- and playing in a division that includes Mahomes and Herbert ... and with the understanding that the other team in the division, the Raiders, are on the clock next. There's no better deep-ball thrower in this class than Penix, and when I spoke with Rome Odunze and Troy Fautanu during the pre-draft process, neither could understand why we weren't talking about Penix as a slam-dunk top-32 selection. I agree with them.
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Round 1, Pick 13
With five QBs already off the board, Vegas takes my CB1, Quinyon Mitchell, who proved during the pre-draft process that everything we saw on tape at Toledo translates to the bigger, faster and stronger players he'll face at the next level.
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Mock Trade from
New Orleans Saints
Round 1, Pick 14
I've said it since the fall: Bowers is a top 10 talent but because of the position he plays, and needs at other positions, he could slip to the middle of the first round. Even here, the Bengals could target tackles Taliese Fuaga or Amarius Mims here.
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Round 1, Pick 15
I could talk myself into a WR here but Arnold is CB1 for some teams and I love the idea of adding him to a young secondary that includes last year's second-round pick, JuJu Brents, in addition to Jaylon Jones, flashed at times in '23.
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Round 1, Pick 16
Right guard Laken Tomlinson is on a one-year deal and right tackle Abe Lucas only appeared in six games in 2023. When Lucas is healthy, he has been really good -- and a solid bookend to former first-rounder Charles Cross -- and Fuaga can kick inside early in his NFL career and be dominant before moving back to tackle, if needed.
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Round 1, Pick 17
DeJean is a big, strong, fast cornerback with return ability. Folks in the league like the idea that he could play multiple positions, whether it's outside, in the slot or even deep safety.
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Round 1, Pick 18
Trent Brown is on a one-year deal in Cincy and you can never have enough offensive linemen to protect your investment in Joe Burrow.
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Round 1, Pick 19
I'll be honest, I'm surprised that in my "what I would do" mock draft Turner was still on the board here -- but five QBs are gone, there was a run on WRs and OL too. Either way, this is great news for the Rams, who have a first-round pick for the first time in the Sean McVay era.
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Round 1, Pick 20
Like Dallas Turner at pick No. 19, it's hard to wrap my head around Latu still being on the board (even though, yes, I am the one putting this mock together). I've heard that he's been cleared medically and there's a realistic chance that he's a top-15 pick -- which is exactly what his tape says, too.
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Round 1, Pick 21
Troy Fautanu can play tackle but he may begin his NFL journey as a guard, where in Miami, both Isaiah Wynn and Robert Jones will have their contracts expire after the '24 season.
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Round 1, Pick 22
I know some NFL teams don't think Wiggins will go in Round 1 but he's the best cover corner in this class, he's just slight of frame. And, fair or not, it doesn't help his case that CB Emmanuel Forbes, who weighed 166 last year, struggled as the Commanders 2023 first-rounder. That said, I think Wiggins showed improvement as a tackler last season and he improves an aging Philly secondary.
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Round 1, Pick 23
Look at that: the Vikings stay put at No. 11 and get their QB and then, at No. 23, land one of the best defensive players in this class -- Newton is a twitched-up defensive lineman coming off a really good season for Illinois.
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Round 1, Pick 24
I considered Amarius Mims here but a) he played in just eight games in college, and b) he's a right tackle only. And while Guyton was primarily a right tackle at Oklahoma (he did play 70 total snaps at LT during his college career), some NFL teams think he can play LT in the NFL too.
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Round 1, Pick 25
Morgan was a left tackle only during his career at Arizona but and he has the athleticism to play outside -- but his arms also measured just under 33 inches, which could necessitate a move inside at the next level. Morgan does provide position flexibility now that the Packers have moved on from David Bakhtiari, with the potential to be a top-flight guard in the NFL.
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Round 1, Pick 26
I mentioned it above, but the league views Powers-Johnson more as a second-rounder but he feels like too good a fit to pass up here for the Bucs, who have needs along the interior offensive line -- and JPJ can play either guard or center in the NFL.
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From
Houston Texans
Round 1, Pick 27
The Cards take Malik Nabers at No. 4, and somehow, Latu is still on the board at the bottom of Round 1.
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Round 1, Pick 28
Thomas Jr. reminds Rick Spielman, my co-host on the With the First Pick podcast, of George Pickens. And if he's here, this will be the easiest pick the Bills make all weekend. I'm a huge Ladd McConkey fan, and I love the idea of him going to Buffalo, but that typically assumes Thomas Jr. is long gone. My only other hesitation about McConkey to Buffalo is that he's similar in height to Shakir and Samuels, while Thomas Jr. is a looming red-zone threat from just about anywhere on the field.
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Round 1, Pick 29
Robinson is a twitched-up pass-rushing machine who might have the highest motor of anyone -- at any position -- in this draft class. I love the idea of him lining up opposite Aidan Hutchinson.
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Round 1, Pick 30
Mims' size and athleticism are special, even in this top-flight OL draft class. The only issues are that he hasn't played much football and he struggled to stay healthy last fall. But when he was on the field -- including his very first college start against Ohio State in the College Football Playoff back in January 2023, he has been dominant. And if he had stayed healthy in '23 (he also tweaked his hamstring at the combine) he would've been an easy top-15 pick.
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Mock Trade from
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1, Pick 31
The Patriots move up three spots, back into the bottom of the first round to get one of the most explosive wideouts in this class. Mitchell has the juice to create separation on routes to all three levels and he'll give Drake Maye something Patriots QBs haven't had in a few years: a legit playmaker on the outside.
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Round 1, Pick 32
I know the Chiefs landed Hollywood Brown but who knows what the future holds for 2023 second-rounder Rashee Rice. Meanwhile, ask scouts who the best route runner is in this class and the answer is almost universally McConkey. He creates separation at every level and plays up to his 4.39 speed. He's undersized, sure, but I have a hunch that Andy Reid will be able to scheme him open.
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Round 2, Pick 33
I don't care that Coleman ran a 4.61 at the combine; he had the fastest time among all WRs in the gauntlet drill and he just turned 21. He wasn't asked to do much at FSU and the lack of separation showed up, but watch him at Michigan State, where he ran a more diverse route tree and you can see him running away from people. He gives Bryce Young a much-needed big target down the field.
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Mock Trade from
New England Patriots
Round 2, Pick 34
The 49ers move down a few spots, add some draft capital and still fill an important need. Alabama thinks Kool-Aid has legit NFL cover skills -- the only question will be his deep speed -- and he answered those questions at his pro day when he ran a 4.47. Added bonus: he can be an asset in the return game, too.
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Round 2, Pick 42
I don't know if Fiske will be on the board here but if he is, this feels like a steal. He tested through the roof at the combine but his tape was even more impressive, both at Western Michigan and in 2023 when he transferred to FSU.
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Round 2, Pick 54
This Browns defense was dominant for much of last season and Hall is a twitched-up terror who was consistently disruptive for the Buckeyes a year ago. He only weighed 290 at the combine, but that's in the same range as Shelby Harris and Maurice Hurst.
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The 2024 NFL Draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft order and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.
