We are now in the home stretch of the 2020 regular season. As some clubs look to use these final three weeks to punch their ticket into the postseason in hopes of a Super Bowl run, this mad dash to Week 17 could very well determine the MVP race. As we entered the 2020 season, there was plenty made about how Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson had never received a single vote for MVP in his career, despite being looked at as arguably a top-three player at the position. Out of the gate, it looked like he was not only going to get a vote but win the award outright.
From Week 2 to Week 10, Wilson was looked at as the betting favorite to win MVP, but then things took a tumble. Seattle fell to the Rams in Week 10, and while they've been able to win three of their previous four contests, Wilson's ridiculous start to 2020 has cooled. For the first eight games of the regular season, Wilson was completing over 70% of his throws, averaging over 315 yards passing per game, and had 28 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. From Week 10 on, Wilson is averaging just 228 yards passing and has eight touchdowns to four picks.
That dip in production has led to a massive dip in his MVP chances as he's now +5000 to win the award alongside Titans running back Derrick Henry, which knots him up for the fourth-highest odds in the league.
Here's a look at how the MVP race is shaping out as we enter Week 15. All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
- Patrick Mahomes (-240)
- Aaron Rodgers (+190)
- Josh Allen (+1500)
- Russell Wilson (+5000)
- Derrick Henry (+5000)
As Wilson has begun to fade, Patrick Mahomes' MVP case has started to cement itself. After Week 12, Mahomes was -350 for the award while Wilson stood at +650. The Seahawks quarterback fell out of the top three after Week 13, while Mahomes' position strengthened to a staggering -500.
As we've seen this year, however, this race ebbs and flows rather rapidly and we could be seeing a turn in the tide as we stand here today. After Week 13, Mahomes' odds of winning MVP were sky-high. However, following a Week 14 performance where he threw three interceptions and narrowly escaped Miami with a win, the reigning Super Bowl MVP's odds have declined to -240.
In lockstep with his struggles, the continued success of Packers star quarterback Aaron Rodgers has also made this race quite intriguing. His odds have improved for three straight weeks after sitting at +500 following Week 12. Coming into Week 15, Mahomes edges Rodgers in passing yards by 523 yards. That said, Rodgers currently bests Mahomes in touchdown passes (39 to 33), completion percentage (1.2% difference), passer rating (119.7 to 112.3), and has thrown one fewer interception.
With the margins that close, these next three games will be absolutely critical in determining how this race will ultimately conclude.