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It's time once again to check in on the 2023 NFL MVP race. With just three games remaining in the season, the field is narrowing down, and we had a big shakeup in our poll this week.

After the Dallas Cowboys were blown off the field by the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, we saw Dak Prescott get knocked out of the top spot. Taking his place was not the second-place finisher in each of our last two installments (Brock Purdy), but someone from further down the board: Lamar Jackson. (Full disclosure, I was the lone voter to give Lamar a first-place vote in each of the last two polls. I'm glad to that see some of my colleagues have come around.)

In case you need a reminder of how this works, here it is: Our panel of voters were each asked to submit their top five choices for MVP. To reflect the ranked-choice voting system now in place, a first-place vote was worth five points, a second-place vote worth four, third-place worth three, fourth-place worth two and fifth-place worth one. The candidates were then ranked in order of their total voting points received. 

Without further ado, let's get to the voting breakdown. (Here is last week's version, for reference.)

The panel of voters: Jared Dubin, Eric Kernish, Cody Benjamin, Garrett Podell, Josh Edwards, Will Brinson, Jeff Kerr, Kevin Steimle, Tyler Sullivan, Chris Trapasso, Jordan Dajani, John Breech, Bryan DeArdo, Brett Anderson

The full MVP leaderboard

1. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (52.5 points) | Last Week: 5th

2. 49ers QB Brock Purdy (47.5) | Last week: 2nd

3. 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (41) | Last Week: 4th

4. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (24) Last Week: 1st

5. Bills QB Josh Allen (23) | Last Week: T-7th

6. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (16) | Last Week: 3rd

7. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (3) | Last Week: 6th 

8. Rams QB Matthew Stafford (2) | Last Week: NR

T-7. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (1) | Last Week: T-7th

Dropped out: None

Most first-place votes:

  • Lamar Jackson (5 out of 14)
  • Christian McCaffrey (4)
  • Brock Purdy (3)
  • Tyreek Hill (2)

Most second-place votes:

  • Lamar Jackson (5 out of 14)
  • Brock Purdy (4)
  • Christian McCaffrey 3)
  • Dak Prescott (2)

Most total ballots: 

  • Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy (14 out of 14)
  • Dak Prescott (12) 
  • Christian McCaffrey (11)
  • Josh Allen (10)
  • Tyreek Hill (6)
  • Jalen Hurts (2)
  • Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa (1)

Positional representation:

  • QB (7)
  • WR (1)
  • RB (1)

So who will actually win?

Purdy is now the odds-on favorite (-230) at Caesars Sportsbook, while Jackson (+525) is next in line. The Niners actually play the Ravens next Monday night, and it seems fairly likely that the quarterback whose team wins that game will be installed as a heavy favorite next week. Perhaps there's something McCaffrey (+550), Prescott (+750) or Allen (+900) can do down the stretch to sneak in there, but it would likely take one or both of Purdy and Jackson stumbling.