It's a critical matchup for AFC playoff seeding on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 17 when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Buffalo Bills at Paycor Stadium. Both teams come in rolling, with Buffalo (12-3) on a six-game win streak and the Bengals (11-4) on a seven-game run. Buffalo won 35-13 in Chicago last Sunday, while the Bengals won 22-18 in New England. The Bills have the upper hand in the race for the No. 1 seed, but the Chiefs (12-3) and Bengals are on their heels. Both of these teams beat Kansas City this season, and a victory here would be another statement. It's the first meeting between Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Cincinnati counterpart Joe Burrow, and both teams are in the top 10 in both scoring offense and defense.

Kickoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET in Cincinnati, Ohio. Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Bengals odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under for total points scored is 50.5. Before locking in any Bengals vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 158-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Bengals and just locked in its picks and MNF predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines and trends for Bengals vs. Bills:

  • Bills vs. Bengals spread: Buffalo -2.5
  • Bills vs. Bengals over/under: 50.5 points
  • Bills vs. Bengals money line: Buffalo -145, Cincinnati +122
  • BUF: The Bills are 52-42-7 ATS (56%) with coach Sean McDermott (since 2017)
  • CIN: The Bengals are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) with Zac Taylor as coach (since 2019)
  • Bills vs. Bengals picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo is 7-7-1 against the spread this season but is 6-3-1 ATS in non-division games. They have not lost a game by more than four points and have won eight by at least eight points. Allen's ability with both his arm and legs play a huge role in the offense's success. The unit ranks second in total yards (402 per game) and is seventh in both rushing and passing. It also leads the NFL in third-down conversion rate at just under 50%. Allen is sixth in the league in passing yards (4,029) and third in TD passes (32) and has rushed for 756 yards (6.5 per carry).

The Bills rushed for a season-high 254 yards in Chicago last week, with Devin Singletary going for 106 and rookie James Cook adding 99. Singletary has 1,067 total yards and Cook averages 5.8 yards per carry. Stefon Diggs is third in the NFL with 1,037 receiving yards. The Bills score 28 points per game, fourth-most in the NFL, and allow just 17.5, second-fewest. The Bengals have struggled to protect Burrow and he has been sacked 39 times, tied for fifth-most in the league. Cincy struggles to run the ball (26th), so the Bills can focus on rushing the passer. See which side to back here.

Why the Bengals can cover

Cincinnati is on a stunning 20-3 run against the spreading dating to last season and have covered in seven straight. They are 5-1 ATS at home, and their only loss in Cincinnati came in Week 1, when they had the potential winning extra point blocked and lost to Pittsburgh in overtime. Burrow is second in the NFL in passing yards (4,260) and TDs (34). He also is the highest-rated passer in the NFL (107.7) since the Bengals started the season 0-2. The home crowd and the matchup against Allen should have the third-year pro eager to put on a show.

Receiver Ja'Marr Chase, who has 960 yards and eight TDs despite missing four games, also should be ready to shine under the lights. The Buffalo defense's weakness is against the pass (15th in NFL). That is sure to be the Bengals' approach with weapons like receivers Tee Higgins (1,022 yards) and Tyler Boyd (722) and tight end Hayden Hurst (48 catches). Running back Joe Mixon is third on the team with 55 catches and has 1,187 total yards and eight TDs. The Bills have committed 24 turnovers, tied for second-most in the league, and Cincy has 17, tied for sixth-fewest. See which side to back here.

How to make Bengals vs. Bills picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 50 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's MNF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Bengals vs. Bills? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Bengals spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the model that has crushed its NFL picks, and find out.